By @mneniyefm
A phase of heightened global turbulence appears to be setting in. And it will shake everyone—especially nations already entangled in war.
Across most active conflicts, the warring parties remain convinced that it’s too early to negotiate or seek resolution.
Russia–Ukraine: Countdown to Climax
As predicted, summer is proving to be the least likely time for a ceasefire. On the contrary, Russia is ramping up efforts to occupy even more Ukrainian territory. Meanwhile, Western arms deliveries to Ukraine seem to have stabilized, with a potential spike in fighting expected within the next few weeks.
Estimated timeline for escalation: 50–60 days.
Israel/US vs. Iran: No Talks, Only Tension
No diplomacy is in sight. Instead, uncertainty is building—similar to the conditions that preceded previous Israeli strikes on Iranian territory. Tehran, despite considerable support from China and to a lesser extent Russia, has yet to regain full control over its airspace.
Israel retains its air corridor to Iran through Syria and Iraq, and it shows no signs of hesitating to exploit this strategic advantage.
Deadline pressure: End of August.
Talks on Iran’s nuclear program remain stalled, and EU sanctions lifted after the 2015 deal have yet to be reinstated post-U.S. withdrawal. This window may see renewed direct conflict between Israel and Iran.
Israel–Syria: A Proxy Game Unfolds
Israel continues its assertive posture toward Syria’s transitional government, seeking to cultivate proxies—primarily among Druze and potentially Kurds. With air superiority on its side, Israel has the upper hand in managing the tempo of military engagement.
Though the U.S. supports Turkey’s vision for Syria’s future, Washington is not pushing back against Israeli actions—for now.
Israel is in no rush to normalize ties with Syria. Rather, it views the Syrian airspace as vital for operations against Iran. As a result, clashes in Syria will likely persist. The key concern is the possibility of direct friction between Israel and Turkey.
Kurds: Clarity may come soon, with potential Turkish strikes.
Druze: Israel will likely hold its position until the end.
China’s Strategic Alignment
Beijing is becoming increasingly transparent in its support for both Russia and Iran. While the confrontation with the U.S. remains primarily in economic and diplomatic domains for now, the trajectory suggests deeper rivalry ahead.
Azerbaijan and Armenia: A Tightrope of Peace
Amid this global chaos, Azerbaijan and Armenia might be among the few players with an opportunity to consolidate peace. Their challenge: navigating a geopolitical minefield without slipping into the vortex of wider regional or global conflicts.
It’s a precarious balancing act—like walking a tightrope across a battlefield.
One wrong step, and the consequences could be explosive.
