Azerbaijan.US
Azerbaijan could theoretically withdraw from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) without facing serious political or economic consequences, according to political analyst Farhad Mammadov, director of the Center for South Caucasus Studies.
Speaking in an interview on the Modern Conversation program, Mammadov argued that most practical benefits of CIS membership – including trade facilitation, mobility arrangements, and social guarantees – have already been duplicated through bilateral agreements. As a result, the organization no longer represents a critical strategic platform for Baku.
The analyst linked the growing debate over Azerbaijan’s CIS participation to the recent deterioration in relations with Russia, particularly following the unresolved aftermath of the AZAL plane tragedy.
While Moscow acknowledged responsibility at the political level, Mammadov noted the absence of concrete legal and compensatory steps, which has fueled tensions.
He also pointed out that several former Soviet states – including Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova – have already distanced themselves from the CIS, reducing the bloc’s overall relevance.
At the same time, Azerbaijan has strengthened direct partnerships with Central Asian countries and maintains stable bilateral ties with Belarus outside multilateral dependency.
According to Mammadov, this evolving regional architecture means that leaving the CIS would be politically feasible and functionally manageable for Azerbaijan if relations with Russia continue to worsen.
