Abu Dhabi And The Vance Visit: Why Moscow Is Uneasy

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Talks between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Abu Dhabi were part of preparations for the expected visit of U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance to the South Caucasus, according to Farhad Mammadov, chairman of the South Caucasus Research Center, in an interview with the Novosti Kavkaza channel.

He said the meeting was held in a full-format setting and focused on aligning steps for the coming months-from economic cooperation to political dialogue and the parameters of a future peace agreement.

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The expert noted that choosing the United Arab Emirates as the venue reflects the sides’ desire for neutral ground free from mediation and external pressure.

Speaking about the United States, Mammadov stressed that Vance’s anticipated visit could signal a stronger American presence in the region, particularly in infrastructure projects and security matters.

In his assessment, these developments are gradually reducing Russia’s influence, as normalization between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the diversification of regional foreign policy lessen the previous dependence on Moscow.

Mammadov argued that Russia’s irritation is primarily linked to the loss of its former monopoly on regional influence.

The normalization of relations between Baku and Yerevan, the possible opening of the Armenian-Turkish border, and growing U.S. engagement are shaping a new security architecture in which Moscow’s role is steadily shrinking.

Even in areas traditionally dominated by Russia-such as infrastructure, energy, and Armenia’s border security-alternative cooperation formats are now being discussed.

As a result, the South Caucasus is increasingly making decisions based on its own interests rather than the logic of a former geopolitical center.

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