ISTANBUL, July 23 — A new round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations is set to take place in Istanbul this week, yet expectations for any major breakthrough remain low, according to diplomatic sources and analysis reported by BBC Russian.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, although Russian and Turkish sources have offered conflicting dates, suggesting it may occur between July 23 and 24 at the Çırağan Palace in Istanbul. The Kremlin has not confirmed the final timing but acknowledged that the talks are expected this week.
Zelensky has appointed Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Rustem Umerov, to lead Kyiv’s delegation — the same official who headed previous negotiations in May and June. The Ukrainian side will include representatives from military intelligence, the Foreign Ministry, and the presidential office.
Zelensky emphasized Ukraine’s goals remain unchanged: “We are ready to work as productively as possible to secure the release of our captives and abducted children, to stop the killings, and to prepare a meeting between the leaders to truly end this war.”
The Kremlin’s team, as per TASS, will again be led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, joined by senior figures from Russia’s foreign ministry, military, and defense establishment.
Progress Unlikely, Analysts Say
Despite the meeting, analysts warn that meaningful progress is unlikely. BBC correspondent Elizaveta Fokht notes that since the last round of negotiations in early June, little has changed on the battlefield — but the geopolitical context has shifted. U.S. President Donald Trump has taken a harder line against the Kremlin, reportedly issuing a 50-day ultimatum to Putin for a ceasefire, threatening harsh new sanctions and military aid to Ukraine if talks fail.
In earlier talks, Moscow and Kyiv exchanged position papers that reflected starkly opposing views. Ukraine has pushed for an immediate ceasefire and a path to peace talks, while Russia insists on terms that amount to Ukraine’s de facto capitulation — a gap that leaves little room for compromise.
According to a senior Ukrainian official cited by AFP, this week’s talks are expected to focus on humanitarian matters, particularly further exchanges of prisoners and the possibility of a direct Zelensky-Putin meeting.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov downplayed the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough: “Expecting miracles in the current climate is unrealistic,” he told reporters. “We still have significant work to do before any high-level meetings can even be considered.”
Talks as a Performance for Washington?
BBC Russian‘s analysis frames the negotiations as less about resolving conflict and more about appearances. With the U.S. stepping up its pressure campaign and NATO strengthening ties with Kyiv, both Russia and Ukraine appear eager to demonstrate openness to dialogue — largely for Washington’s benefit.
For Ukraine, it’s about maintaining support from the Biden administration and deflecting criticism. For Russia, it’s a calculated effort to show the U.S. that Moscow isn’t deliberately sabotaging diplomatic solutions.
“The only concrete achievements from previous Istanbul meetings were prisoner exchanges and the return of fallen soldiers’ bodies,” Fokht notes. “This is likely the only realistic outcome this time as well.”
While diplomatic theater may dominate the headlines, the battlefield realities and entrenched positions of both sides mean that any real peace remains elusive — for now.
