Each additional dollar added to the price of a barrel of oil could bring Azerbaijan roughly $350 million in annual fuel export revenues, according to a new report from Dutch banking giant ING Group.
By comparison, Kazakhstan stands to gain even more—around $570 million for every extra dollar per barrel, the bank’s analysts noted.
The report also highlighted a sharp decline in Azerbaijan’s trade surplus: over the 12 months ending in May 2025, the surplus dropped to $2.7 billion, down from $5.5 billion in 2024 and a staggering $16.6 billion in 2023.
Despite the dip, ING analysts remain optimistic.
“The drop in the trade surplus could be offset by increased capital inflows,” the report noted.
This sentiment echoes recent developments: international rating agencies are showing renewed confidence in Azerbaijan’s economy. Moody’s, following Fitch, has upgraded the country to an investment-grade rating of Baa3 with a positive outlook, citing improved fiscal metrics and growing foreign exchange reserves.
ING also suggests that continued normalization of relations with Armenia may further boost investor confidence and unlock additional opportunities for economic expansion.
Earlier reports from ING estimated that each $1 change in average annual oil prices brings $300 million in additional export revenue and $150 million in budgetary income for Azerbaijan. The bank has now revised those figures upward in light of stronger fiscal performance and external sector stability.
