Azerbaijan.US
The South Caucasus is moving into a new phase shaped less by ideology and more by hard calculations of security, sovereignty, and survival, said Farhad Mamedov, Chairman of the South Caucasus Research Center, speaking on Novosti Kavkaza.
According to Mamedov, old assumptions about fixed alliances and predictable power balances are rapidly eroding. They are being replaced by a fluid geopolitical environment in which flexibility matters more than loyalty to any single bloc.
For Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia, he stressed, the central challenge is no longer about choosing sides. Instead, it is about avoiding transformation into an arena for other powers’ confrontations.
Regional actors, Mamedov noted, are increasingly focused on preserving existing gains, managing risks, and strengthening state capacity rather than pursuing ambitious ideological projects.
He described this emerging reality as a “new geopolitical normality”, defined by several interlinked trends: the fragmentation of global security systems, the rising importance of regional arrangements, and the steady decline of universal rules in favor of situational pragmatism. Major powers remain present in the region, but their expectations often exceed their actual ability to shape outcomes on the ground.
In this context, Mamedov argued, sovereignty means more than formal independence. It implies the ability to make decisions based on national interests, geography, and resources-without outsourcing strategic choices to external players. Diversification of partnerships, cautious diplomacy, and internal stability become key instruments of resilience.
“The South Caucasus is not entering an era of certainty,” Mamedov concluded.
“It is entering an era of managed uncertainty, where success depends on balance, restraint, and a clear understanding of limits. This is the geopolitical normality the region now faces-and must learn to navigate.”
