Baku, Sept. 18
Armenia has created an “abnormal” security setup by hosting institutions and forces from rival power centers, and now faces a zugzwang – a position where every move worsens its situation—former Azerbaijani foreign minister Tofiq Zulfugarov told Minval Politika in an interview.
Zulfugarov was commenting on the clause in the Washington-paraphed framework that, according to Baku’s understanding, envisages the withdrawal of the EU’s civilian monitoring mission from Armenia. He argued that the mission’s mandate had expanded beyond border observation into projects “across Armenia,” placing it alongside other external actors whose agendas collide.
“Armenia is a unique case: an EU mission on the ground, Russian ground and air bases, a large contingent of Russian border guards, and – per recent Washington understandings – additional security structures for the Zangezur corridor,” he said. “How Yerevan intends to reconcile these is unclear.”
The ex-minister said the overlap of Western and Russian footprints is “even more contentious” than the EU mission itself and also heightens Iranian concerns about U.S. proximity to its frontier. He framed Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s balancing between Moscow, Brussels/Washington and Tehran as “not political wisdom but overconfidence,” warning of potential internal shocks for Armenia.
On the peace track, Zulfugarov reiterated Baku’s insistence that Armenia amend its constitution – via referendum – to remove provisions Baku views as irredentist. That vote, he said, would test whether Armenian society “is ready for peace.”
“If those amendments fail, even a framework document cannot be signed,” he noted.
Zulfugarov cast Pashinyan’s current pro-peace rhetoric as capacity-driven rather than value-driven: “He speaks of peace because Armenia lacks the means to pursue its former annexationist line.” He cautioned there is “no guarantee” Armenian attitudes will not shift later.
For Azerbaijan, he said, the only reliable guarantees are a strong state and its alliance with Türkiye. He described Baku’s recent diplomacy as having forced Yerevan into choices it would not otherwise make:
“Azerbaijan created conditions of zugzwang for Armenia. They are taking these steps not because they have grown wiser, but because they were brought to Abu Dhabi and Washington and faced serious consequences if they refused. Let’s not build illusions.”
