The World Bank has revised its forecast for Azerbaijan’s economic growth, projecting a 1.9% increase in 2025, followed by 1.8% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027.
According to Report.az, citing the Bank’s updated regional outlook, these figures mark a downward revision from the June 2025 forecast, which estimated GDP growth 0.7 percentage points higher for 2025 and 0.6 points higher for 2026 and 2027.
On average, Azerbaijan’s GDP growth is expected to remain around 1.8% between 2025 and 2027.
Regional Context
The World Bank projects that Central Asia’s economy will expand by 5.9% in 2025, up from 5.7% in 2024, driven by higher oil production in Kazakhstan, strong investment inflows, and robust remittance flows.
In contrast, growth in the South Caucasus-which includes Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia-is expected to slow to 3.7% in 2025, compared to 5.7% in 2024, and moderate to slightly above 3% in 2026–2027.
The report notes that lower global energy prices and weaker demand continue to weigh on oil-exporting economies across Europe and Central Asia:
“Energy exports account for about 85% of Azerbaijan’s total goods exports and more than 50% for Kazakhstan and Russia,” the World Bank said.
Different Forecasts Across Institutions
The Azerbaijani Ministry of Economy maintains a more optimistic view, expecting GDP growth of 3% in 2025, 2.9% in 2026, and 3.6% in 2027.
Forecasts from international financial institutions vary:
S&P Global: 2% annual growth (2025–2026)
Fitch Ratings: 3.5% in 2025, 2.5% in 2026
Moody’s: 2.5% annually
IMF: 3.5% in 2025, 2.5% in 2026
EBRD: 3% in 2025, 2.5% in 2026
ADB: 2.4% in 2025, 2% in 2026
ING Group: 1.5% in 2025, 2.8% in 2026
In 2024, Azerbaijan’s economy grew by 4.1%, while growth for January–August 2025 stood at 1%.
