Rising flour prices in recent weeks have drawn concern from both consumers and bread producers in Azerbaijan. Global shifts in the food market – particularly sharp swings in wheat prices – are beginning to ripple through the local economy.
Experts say the main driver is the growing tension in global wheat supply. The war in Ukraine, export restrictions, and logistics bottlenecks in both Russia and Ukraine have pushed international grain prices higher. As a result, countries that rely on imports, including Azerbaijan, are feeling the pressure.
Economist Natig Jafarli told Bizim.Media that if the upward trend continues, it could directly affect the price of bread in the domestic market.
“The rise in flour prices is linked to higher global wheat costs. Russia has been partly isolated from the world grain market, while Ukraine, due to the war, cannot sell its wheat freely. This has led to a general increase in prices worldwide,” Jafarli explained.
He noted that the effect is spreading gradually across the region and will likely reach Azerbaijan more visibly if global prices remain high.
“Azerbaijan can cover only about 24–25 percent of its wheat needs for bread production. The rest comes from imports, so any rise in global prices inevitably affects the local market. For now, there’s no sharp jump, but if this trend continues, bread prices could rise too,” he said.
Producers describe the situation as a “wait-and-see phase.” They note that if international grain markets stabilize, local prices may follow. Still, Azerbaijan’s heavy reliance on imported wheat has reignited debate over food security and domestic grain production, which experts say remain the country’s weak points.
