Baku-Tbilisi, August 13
The European Union’s observer mission in Armenia has lost its relevance and should be wound down following the agreements reached in Washington, analysts say.
The mission, launched at the initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron, was originally aimed at ensuring a Western presence in Armenia, conducting intelligence activities, and fueling tensions between Yerevan and Baku. But with both sides now embracing a peace agenda, experts argue the EU presence along the Armenia–Azerbaijan line of contact is no longer necessary.
Azerbaijani MP and political analyst Rasim Musabekov said Media.Az, that absence of border incidents and the initialing of a peace treaty — which stipulates that no third-party forces should be deployed along the border — removes any justification for keeping the mission. “I think the EU understands this. Brussels doesn’t have extra funds to sustain such a costly mission. It could reduce staff now and fully withdraw after the peace deal takes effect. The mission could remain in some capacity in Yerevan, but its practical value is minimal,” he said, adding that France could instead focus on border security with Iran and, eventually, Turkey.
Vakhtang Maisaia, a Georgian professor of military and political sciences, also believes the EU mission has outlived its purpose. “Given that U.S. personnel will effectively be present in Armenia in the near future, and with Karabakh off the agenda, there is no need for such a mission. Aggressive separatism has been crushed, and Azerbaijan is advancing geo-economic projects that enhance regional security,” he said.
Maisaia suggested the EU could shift to partnering with Washington on initiatives such as the Zangezur Corridor (“Trump Route”), since the Washington agreements are reshaping the South Caucasus security landscape. “We are starting from a clean slate, and I believe we will see new approaches to peace-building, including EU participation,” he noted.
According to Maisaia, the new framework will also improve Azerbaijan–EU relations. “The Washington agreements eliminate the OSCE Minsk Group format, which means the EU mission will naturally fade away. Brussels will have to realign its priorities to contribute to regional security in the South Caucasus,” he concluded.
