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Unpredictable Modi: Can Israel Sway India’s Position Toward Baku?

September 10, 2025

Israel could, in theory, step in as a defender of Azerbaijan’s interests after India blocked Baku’s bid to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), though for now such involvement is not urgently needed.

That was the assessment of political analyst Ilgar Velizade, head of the South Caucasus Political Scientists’ Club, speaking to Minval Politika.

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Velizade noted that India and Israel have forged close ties that extend beyond defense:

“Military-technical cooperation has expanded significantly under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but there is also a serious economic dimension,” he said. “India is actively advancing the India–Europe Corridor project, where Israel serves as a reliable link.”

The project was unveiled at the G20 summit in New Delhi in 2023. Velizade added that, before the 2023 Israel–Hamas war, another framework involving the United States, Israel, India, and the UAE had been quietly growing under the umbrella of the Abraham Accords.

According to the analyst, this network has strengthened Israel’s influence in India and even shaped Delhi’s decision-making on regional matters:

“India listens to Tel Aviv on a number of issues, especially when the message is insistent,” he said.

Still, Velizade cautioned against overestimating India’s reliability:

“The current government under Modi is willful and often inconsistent. We cannot count on predictable behavior from him personally or from his administration.”

For now, India’s stance does not critically undermine Azerbaijan’s security, Velizade stressed.

“If New Delhi were to apply real pressure on Baku, Israel could act as a mediator or even a protector of Azerbaijan’s interests. But at this stage, there is no pressing need, and Azerbaijan has not approached Israel for such support,” he concluded.

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