Baku – September 11, 2025
Azerbaijani economist Natig Jafarli has warned that citizens are likely to face near-term price hikes in public transport and utilities, arguing the government may seek to offset falling revenues through tariff increases.
In a Facebook post, Jafarli said there is a “very high likelihood” of such “unpleasant surprises” in the coming months. He cautioned that any additional burden would hit households already stretched by food costs, noting that “according to official data, people are spending 50 qepik of every manat just on food – which is a sign of poverty.”
Fresh figures published Wednesday by the State Statistics Committee underscore the pressure on consumer wallets. From January to August, retail turnover totaled AZN 40.4 billion, including AZN 22.2 billion in food, beverages and tobacco and AZN 18.2 billion in non-food goods, the committee reported.
In real terms, overall retail trade grew 3.7% year on year, driven by a 6.7% rise in non-food purchases; food, beverages and tobacco rose a more modest 1.3%. Over the period, 50.7% of household retail spending went to food items.
Economists often view a household food share near or above 50% as indicative of constrained disposable income, leaving less room for non-essentials and savings. Jafarli argued that raising transport fares or utility tariffs under such conditions would exacerbate financial strain on lower- and middle-income families.
No official decision on fare or tariff changes has been announced, and relevant ministries have not publicly commented on Jafarli’s remarks. However, his warning adds to a broader debate over how Azerbaijan balances budget needs with the cost-of-living pressures felt by consumers.
