The outcome of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war had clear geopolitical consequences: Russia’s ally lost, and Turkey’s ally won. That shift, according to Armenian political analyst Alexander Iskandaryan, inevitably transformed Turkey’s presence and influence in the South Caucasus.
“You can’t expect such a result not to affect Turkey’s position in the region. Turkey has been active here for a long time — particularly in economic terms, in Georgia and Azerbaijan. But now it’s also a strategic player,” Iskandaryan said during an appearance on Factor of Power.
He emphasized that Turkey’s growing influence is rooted in its unequivocal support for Azerbaijan, especially during and after the 2020 war. While Ankara hasn’t replaced Moscow, it has filled a major part of the vacuum left by Russia’s waning dominance.
“Until 2016, Russia was the undisputed security hegemon in the South Caucasus. That’s no longer the case. Turkey hasn’t become the new monopolist, but it has significantly increased its share of influence,” he noted.
Iskandaryan argued that this new balance of power explains why Azerbaijan is acting with increasing confidence — a trend that will continue reshaping the regional order.
“And Russia, deeply entangled in the war in Ukraine, won’t risk opening a ‘second front’ in the Caucasus anytime soon,” he added.
On the normalization process between Armenia and Turkey, Iskandaryan expressed skepticism, arguing that Turkey’s stance is largely shaped not in Ankara, but in Baku.
“The recent visit by Prime Minister Pashinyan to Turkey illustrates this. These visits don’t lead to tangible outcomes — not because Turkey is setting unrealistic conditions, but because those conditions are coming from Baku,” he said.
According to Iskandaryan, Turkey has more than enough resources to assert itself in the South Caucasus, given the current political landscape in the region.
“Look at the Georgia we have, the Azerbaijan we have, and the position held by political elites in Yerevan. Under these conditions, Turkey has sufficient leverage. That said, the South Caucasus is not Turkey’s top strategic priority — its main interests lie in Syria, Iraq, and the broader Middle East,” the analyst concluded.
