The much-discussed “Trump Route”, a U.S.-brokered transport corridor agreed upon by Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington this August, continues to generate heated debate across the South Caucasus.
While the project’s full economic and political dimensions remain to be seen, experts in both countries point to significant logistical, commercial, and geopolitical dividends that could reshape the region’s trade map.
Azerbaijan: Trade, Transit, and Regional Leverage
For Azerbaijan, the corridor holds immediate strategic value – namely, the long-sought direct land link with Nakhchivan, along with broader access to Turkish and European markets.
Analysts expect the route to reduce transport costs, boost trade turnover, and solidify Azerbaijan’s role as a regional transport and logistics hub amid shifting global trade dynamics.
Associate Professor Emin Garibli of Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC) said it is still too early to estimate the exact volume of trade expected through the Trump Route.
“Over the past two to three years, trade volumes along this direction have multiplied,” he told Minval Politika. “Given the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, our route has gained new relevance. Profitability will only rise over time. I believe at least 30-40 percent of current cargo flows through our territory will shift to the new route.”
Garibli expects Azerbaijan to benefit most from value-added processing of goods in its free economic zones, strengthening industrial cooperation between partner states.
He noted that both Kazakhstan and Georgia have already introduced fiscal incentives to attract investment, while Azerbaijan’s tax and customs regimes are also becoming more liberal.
“Investments in the Trump Route will expand the number and size of free economic zones,” he added. “We’ll likely see new financial preferences and industrial partnerships.”
The economist also highlighted the project’s energy potential:
“It will not only carry oil, but also gas — and potentially support green energy links. We already transport Kazakh oil, and I hope Turkmen gas will also reach Europe through Azerbaijan.”
Garibli said the reaction from international financial institutions and corporations has been positive. “The state and all transit countries will invest in this route, and those costs will pay off,” he said. “It may become as strategically important as today’s oil sector.”
Azerbaijan, he argued, is evolving from a producer to a major transit economy – competing with Georgia and Kazakhstan for investor attention. “As trade expands, Azerbaijan will adjust its economic doctrine to attract more foreign investment,” he concluded.
Armenia: From Isolation to Integration
For Armenia, whose territory forms part of the corridor, the benefits are also tangible. Activist and blogger Ishkhan Verdyan told Minval Politika that while he had not studied the detailed economic models, it was clear that “we are not talking about small numbers.”
“This could mean a substantial boost to the state budget,” Verdyan said. “Even roadside services – gas stations, cafes, and small shops – could revive local economies, create jobs, and stimulate small business.”
He added that the corridor could act as an “investment magnet” for regions long cut off from trade and development.
“If trade between Armenia and Azerbaijan resumes, it could eventually touch many industries on both sides,” he said. “Even simple commerce has a multiplier effect – stimulating production and industry. In the long run, this could become a goldmine for both economies.”
Verdyan also pointed to potential benefits from transit of energy resources, including oil, gas, and electricity.
“Transit revenues could significantly affect Armenia’s economy – lowering the cost of gas and electricity and giving our economy a second wind,” he said.
According to him, the United States has already approved a funding tranche to support the Trump Route, describing itself as an “active and committed participant” in the initiative.
Verdyan believes that given the corridor’s intercontinental reach – linking Europe and the East – additional investment will inevitably follow.
On the technical side, he said Armenia’s South Caucasus Railways (ЮКЖД), which operates under Russian management, is likely to retain control of the Armenian railway network due to the region’s Soviet-gauge standards, shared only by Azerbaijan and a handful of post-Soviet states.
“This leaves Armenia with little choice but to operate within the existing Russian-built railway system,” Verdyan noted. “If cooperation advances, Azerbaijan’s expertise could also be used in construction – but for now, the track standards define the limits of change.”
Shared Interests, Different Starting Points
Despite decades of hostility, both experts see the Trump Route as a rare instance where geopolitical pragmatism meets economic logic.
For Azerbaijan, it’s a chance to consolidate regional influence and diversify its economy; for Armenia, a path out of isolation and a bridge to new markets.
The project – backed by Washington and quietly observed by Europe – may well become the South Caucasus’ most ambitious post-war experiment: a corridor where commerce, energy, and politics converge in ways that could redraw the region’s economic landscape.
