Baku — August 29, 2025 – While global headlines are consumed with wars and sanctions, Azerbaijan faces a quieter but far more relentless threat: the Caspian Sea is shrinking — fast. What once seemed an eternal anchor of ecology, economy, and national identity is retreating before our eyes.
Economy Running Aground
Ports, oil terminals, and transport hubs built for stable water levels are already struggling. Ships cannot dock without costly dredging, routes are disrupted, and transit chains are breaking down. For a nation that stakes its future on energy exports and a role as a regional transport hub, this is a direct strike at the heart of the economy.
Ecological Collapse
Spawning grounds for sturgeon — a national symbol — are vanishing. The endangered Caspian seal may disappear altogether. An ecosystem that sustained communities for centuries is unraveling. With it goes a piece of Azerbaijan’s cultural DNA: fish, caviar, the sea itself. Today they are rare, tomorrow they may exist only in memory.
Geopolitics Without Water
The crisis touches every Caspian state. Russia worries about military infrastructure, Kazakhstan about oil, Turkmenistan about trade routes. But while neighbors guard their own sectors, the sea recedes. If each protects only a narrow slice of coastline, we may all be left with an empty basin.
Last Chance to Act
Azerbaijan cannot wait for the Caspian to become another Aral Sea. Action is urgent: adapting ports, investing in biodiversity projects, forcing neighbors into coordinated dialogue. This is not a question of decades but of years.
Between Sea and Desert
The Caspian was once a symbol of stability and wealth. Today it has become a symbol of vulnerability. Can Azerbaijan balance its economic ambitions with ecological responsibility? The answer will shape not just the country’s future, but the fate of the sea itself.
