Yerevan, September 26, 2025
The South Caucasus today looks more stable than it has in decades, though the balance of power in the region is shifting, according to Russian analyst Stanislav Pritchin, head of the Central Asia Sector at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) and a Valdai Club expert.
Speaking on Sputnik Armenia, Pritchin said Russia sees “positive trends” despite losing ground as the key mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
“Right now, relations with Georgia are probably the most pragmatic and predictable in years,” he said.
“The main dynamics are in the Armenia–Azerbaijan–Russia triangle, where both Yerevan and Baku are synchronously reducing strategic interaction with Moscow. Yet even in this situation, the framework for stability rests on the documents signed after the Second Karabakh War under Russia’s moderation.”
The “Trump Road” Dilemma
Pritchin noted that both Armenia and Azerbaijan currently find it more advantageous for U.S. President Donald Trump to act as mediator. But he cast doubt on the peace track: “These are declarations, not binding agreements. There is hope that political will can push the process forward, but so far it lacks detail.”
He was particularly critical of the proposed “Trump Road” corridor across Armenia’s Syunik province, comparing it to the Panama or Suez canals.
“A 99-year lease of Armenian territory would mean a loss of sovereign control, especially along the sensitive border with Iran. If the operators are American, the route would likely be closed to Russian, Chinese, and Iranian goods. That cannot be the real objective of Baku or Yerevan.”
While Azerbaijan wants an unobstructed link to Nakhchivan, Pritchin observed, Armenia insists on maintaining territorial control.
“This creates situational gaps in interpretation, and for experts, it remains unclear how exactly this corridor would function,” he added.
Russia’s Role: From Mediator to “Hybrid Freeze”
Moscow, once central to negotiations, now finds itself sidelined. Pritchin admitted Russian diplomacy shows “jealousy” over being pushed out of the peace process.
Still, he argued that Russia is not leaving the South Caucasus: “Trade with Armenia has recently fallen, but much of it was linked to sanctions-driven re-exports. Russia remains Armenia’s main investor, and Europe is not about to open its markets to Armenian goods.”
With Azerbaijan, he said, ties remain more resilient: “Diplomatic relations are frozen at the political level, but joint commissions meet regularly, trade turnover is growing, and neither side is walking away from major projects. It’s what I call a ‘hybrid freeze.’”
Despite uncertainty over the “Trump Route,” Pritchin concluded that the region has moved away from confrontation and toward a cautious pragmatism. Even the intention to open regional corridors, he said, “is already a positive step.”
