Baku, September 6, 2025
On the Новости Кавказа channel, analyst Heydar Mirza and host Gela Vasadze discussed whether new wars are inevitable, weighing possible flashpoints from the Balkans to the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Taiwan Strait.. Their discussion mapped risks from the Balkans to the South Caucasus, the Baltic-Nordic region, the Middle East, South Asia, Central Asia and the Western Pacific.
Mirza said the Balkans warrant closer monitoring as domestic pressures in Serbia interact with regional grievances. He sees Germany and Turkey as the only actors with the experience and leverage to stabilise the area in the near term, noting that US focus is stretched.
In the South Caucasus, he assessed a low likelihood of major Azerbaijan–Armenia escalation in the short run, describing both capitals as “playing for time” while signalling controlled friction. He judged that Russia is more likely to apply non-military pressure—from information operations to manufactured incidents—than to risk an open clash in a geography that favours Turkey-backed Azerbaijan. Baku’s recent Caspian naval drills, and calls to expand fast-attack craft and corvette numbers, were cast as deterrent signalling rather than preparation for offensive action.
On Ukraine, Mirza warned that Russia’s manpower and equipment losses are pushing force restructurings that could translate into heightened pressure in the Baltic/Nordic theatre or renewed moves via Belarus. Compared with those fronts, a Caucasus gambit would be costlier and risk blowback across the North Caucasus and among Turkic and Muslim communities inside Russia.
In the Middle East, Mirza expects Iran to take a tactical time-out. The most acute near-term hazard, he said, is a potential Israel–Turkey collision in or over Syria, though he stressed both sides have strong incentives—and multiple mediators—to avoid direct confrontation.
Turning to South Asia, he argued that escalation between India and Pakistan hinges on New Delhi’s posture amid a more assertive China. Beijing’s growing political and economic footprint around the Indian Ocean—from Sri Lanka to Gwadar—could generate indirect pressure points against India even without a frontal clash.
Afghanistan remains a spoiler arena, with too many external actors holding levers and porous borders enabling rapid spillover into Central Asia. Recent border incidents underscore the risk of sudden, localised violence with outsized geopolitical effects.
In the Western Pacific, Mirza highlighted Taiwan and the South China Sea (Philippines) as flashpoints with systemic consequences. A crisis met by a weak allied response could reorder alliance politics across Japan, South Korea and Australia, potentially accelerating debates over nuclear “threshold” capabilities.
Mirza cautioned against reading sensational headlines as state intent, arguing that information warfare now shapes perceptions as much as battlefield moves. The watchlist he proposed: signals from Belgrade; Russian deployments toward the northwest military district; practical steps on Azerbaijan–Armenia connectivity; Caspian naval procurement; China–India friction mapped onto Indian Ocean logistics; and US–Japan–Korea coordination around Taiwan and the Philippines.
Source: Novosti Kavkaza (in Russian). Full video here
