South Caucasus on the Brink of Change: Experts Weigh In on Baku–Yerevan Agreements

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Washington, August 11 – The South Caucasus appears to be entering a new chapter. In a historic meeting at the White House, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan oversaw the initialing of the Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations by the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Jeyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan.

In a parallel move, the ministers issued a joint appeal to the OSCE Chair-in-Office calling for the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, the elimination of the post of the personal representative on the conflict, and the disbandment of the High-Level Planning Group.

Aliyev, Trump, and Pashinyan also signed a joint declaration on peaceful settlement, committing Baku and Yerevan to permanently end hostilities, respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and establish diplomatic, trade, and travel links.

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The long-disputed Zangezur Corridor issue also appears resolved. Trump confirmed the transport route in Armenia would be renamed the “Trump Route,” linking mainland Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan under a 99-year cooperation arrangement with the U.S. American companies plan major infrastructure investments in both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry announced that within six months, the sides will work toward a Strategic Partnership Charter to boost cooperation in energy, trade, transit, AI and digital infrastructure, defense, security, and counterterrorism. Another milestone was Trump’s repeal of Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act — long criticized in Baku as an unfair relic of past U.S. policy.

Analysts Call It a Breakthrough

Gela Vasadze of the Georgian Center for Strategic Analysis called the results “truly historic,” noting they establish real mechanisms for securing peace “fully within the framework of international law” and with the United States as a powerful guarantor against external threats.

Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Sadaddinov described to Media.Az the White House signing as a “breakthrough” that could transform the regional order:

“For decades, the South Caucasus was a battleground for external powers, marked by wars, refugees, and destruction. Since the 44-day war, Azerbaijan eliminated the separatist enclave on its territory, creating conditions for long-term peace. What happened in Washington is the final stretch toward a fundamental peace.”

He contrasted the Trump administration’s approach with what he called the “one-sided” stance of the Biden administration toward Armenia, arguing that today’s U.S. policy “fully meets the interests of both Azerbaijan and Armenia” by realistically assessing regional dynamics and Turkey’s role.

Sadaddinov also stressed the significance of Washington hosting the peace agreement:

“The U.S. under Trump is regaining authority lost under previous administrations. This factor of a strong guarantor is critical to peace processes in the South Caucasus.”

Key Outcomes Highlighted by Experts:

  • Joint call to disband the OSCE Minsk Group – made from the White House in the presence of the U.S. president, increasing the likelihood of the decision being enacted.

  • Repeal of Section 907 – a measure historically used against Azerbaijan, now removed.

  • U.S. involvement in the Zangezur (Trump) Route – Washington’s participation seen as a safeguard against external opposition to the corridor’s opening.

Sadaddinov concluded that the agreements represent a major step toward a “peaceful oasis” in the region, where Azerbaijan and Armenia — and potentially a third state — can coexist and prosper for the benefit of all regional peoples.

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