Azerbaijan.US
Speaking on the YouTube channel Press Club, Azerbaijani economist and analyst Natig Jafarli said that the political transformation of Iran is no longer hypothetical, but inevitable. According to him, the process is already underway, though its formalization will be painful and time-consuming.
Jafarli argued that U.S. foreign policy – particularly under Donald Trump – should not be viewed through the lens of values or ideology. Instead, Washington acts strictly on the basis of national interest. While this approach may appear cynical, he described it as highly pragmatic and systemic rather than chaotic.
In his view, the United States is deliberately dismantling the old international order and the institutions it once built, from global financial bodies to security frameworks. The goal, he said, is not destruction for its own sake, but a full reset – clearing the ground for a new global architecture better suited to American strategic priorities.
On Iran, Jafarli stressed that external military pressure alone cannot guarantee regime collapse. Direct strikes, he warned, could easily trigger the opposite effect by rallying society around the authorities. That is why, he believes, the real focus is on negotiations with internal elites rather than street protests.
He also pointed to the collapse of the so-called “Global South” doctrine promoted by Russia in recent years. Countries once presented as pillars of this bloc – including Venezuela, Iran, South Africa and Brazil – have either weakened or shifted their positions, while China has chosen a far more cautious path based on economic expansion rather than confrontation.
Turning to the South Caucasus and Central Asia, Jafarli said the region has effectively exited Russia’s exclusive sphere of influence. Turkey and the Turkic states are emerging as an independent center of power, and developments in Iran – including the South Azerbaijan factor – could significantly reshape the regional balance in the years ahead.
“The world is entering a phase of natural selection,” Jafarli concluded. “States that fail to adapt to the new reality risk being pushed to the margins of history.”
