Baku — September 4, 2025
Political analyst Ruslan Suleymanov, speaking on the Novosti Kavkaza platform, offered a detailed assessment of current regional dynamics, from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit to the conflicts in Syria and Gaza, as well as Russia – Iran relations.
Key Points from the Expert Analysis
SCO summit: Largely symbolic, with no binding agreements. Members use the forum for propaganda rather than collective action.
Middle East conflicts: Turkey faces a critical choice on Syria’s Kurds – compromise on autonomy or risk a new military escalation.
Russia–Iran ties: Cooperation is pragmatic, not strategic. Shared interests exist, but no formal alliance is in place.
SCO: Demonstration of Force, Not a Strategic Bloc
According to Suleymanov, the recent SCO summit in Tenzin near Beijing was less a turning point than a demonstration of presence.
“No binding documents were adopted, no real mechanisms created. Every state presents its participation as its own success – Russia for propaganda, China as host, India or Iran for their interests. But the SCO is not a military bloc, nor is it a true center of power,” he noted.
Suleymanov described the organization as a “club of interests,” useful for optics, especially for Moscow to claim it is not isolated. However, the structural rivalries – India vs. China, Russia’s weakened position — make deep integration impossible.
He pointed out that China emerged the main beneficiary, using the summit to underline its role as both economic driver and historic victor in World War II commemorations. “For Putin, appearing only as a guest of honor in Beijing was a symbolic blow,” Suleymanov added.
Syria and the Kurdish Question
Turning to Syria, Suleymanov highlighted that the Kurdish issue remains unresolved despite earlier agreements. Kurdish forces still control about 30 percent of Syrian territory, including key oil and gas sites.
“In March, they were supposed to integrate into the national army. Six months later, nothing has happened. Damascus is now signaling possible military action, with Turkey ready to assist,” he said.
Turkish–Syrian coordination, formalized in August, raises the prospect of an offensive as early as October. Suleymanov warned that such a step could derail Ankara’s own fragile domestic peace process with the PKK.
“If Turkey chooses the military option against Syrian Kurds, it risks destroying the trust of its own Kurdish citizens and undermining the disarmament process with the PKK,” he cautioned.
Gaza: Israel’s Costly War
On Gaza, Suleymanov argued that Israel’s war against Hamas is strategically stuck. He recalled that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had long relied on the “mowed lawn” doctrine – managing Hamas as a controllable threat.
“That strategy collapsed on October 7, 2023. Netanyahu pledged total destruction of Hamas, but after two years of war, this goal is still unattainable,” he explained.
With more than 60,000 Palestinians killed, according to international estimates, global opinion has shifted. “Initially the West saw Israel’s actions as self-defense. Today, even in Europe, voices of condemnation dominate, and some countries prepare to recognize Palestine at the UN,” he said.
Suleymanov added that the continuation of the war is tied to Netanyahu’s political survival: “Any deal with Hamas could fracture his coalition.”
Russia–Iran: Interests, Not Alliance
Suleymanov devoted part of his analysis to Russia–Iran ties, often presented as a strategic partnership. He described the relationship instead as a tactical convergence of interests.
“It is not a full-fledged alliance. Yes, Iran supplied drones, body armor, even technology for Russia’s war in Ukraine. But Moscow has already localized drone production in Tatarstan. Economically, trade is tiny – $4-5 billion a year, far below Turkey or the UAE,” he said.
He stressed that Russia regularly sides with Arab states on disputes such as the UAE’s claim over islands in the Hormuz Strait — a position that irritates Tehran. In return, Iran continues to formally support Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
“Russia and Iran overlap on certain issues — like backing Hamas, Hezbollah or the Houthis – but this is situational. There is no collective defense, no alliance treaty. Each acts for itself,” Suleymanov concluded.
The Middle East: Fragmented and Unstable
Suleymanov argued that the Middle East today lacks the bloc structures of the Cold War era. NATO and the EU remain the only functional alliances; elsewhere, loyalties shift constantly.
“The Arab world is divided – even Gulf neighbors like Qatar and Saudi Arabia pursue opposing policies. Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia compete for leadership. The so-called ‘axis of resistance’ collapsed during the recent 12-day Israel- Iran war, when no proxy group intervened decisively,” he said.
For Suleymanov, this fragmentation explains why efforts to build regional security systems repeatedly fail: “Each actor calculates only its own survival. Coalitions last only as long as temporary interests align.”
Why the Taliban Were Not Invited
Suleymanov also commented on the absence of the Taliban from the SCO summit. The organization, he reminded, was founded with counterterrorism as a key mission.
“Inviting the Taliban would contradict its very charter. Their status remains unclear, most embassies abroad still fly the old Afghan flag. Even SCO neighbors like Tajikistan and Kazakhstan are unwilling to legitimize them. Only Russia has shown readiness, but nobody followed Moscow’s lead,” he said.
A Complex, Dangerous Landscape
Summing up, Suleymanov described today’s geopolitical environment as unstable and contradictory. The SCO provides optics but no substance; Syria risks a new war over the Kurdish question; Gaza continues to burn under a conflict with no exit; and Russia–Iran ties, though useful in the short term, are shallow.
“On every front, what we see are fragile tactical alignments, not durable alliances,” he said.
Source: Novosti Kavkaza (in Russian). Full video here
