Azerbaijan.US
A potential military confrontation between the United States and Iran would have direct consequences for Azerbaijan, and Baku must be prepared for all possible scenarios, according to political analyst Elkhan Shahinoglu.
Speaking about rising tensions around Iran, the expert said the issue is already being discussed behind closed doors at the regional and international level. He noted increased diplomatic activity involving the United States and Israel, including high-level contacts in Baku, as a sign that the situation is being closely monitored.
According to Shahinoglu, Azerbaijan has a clear and consistent position: any military action against Iran must take into account the South Azerbaijan factor and the safety of ethnic Azerbaijanis living in northern Iranian provinces. He stressed that this message has been conveyed to international partners before and remains a key priority for Baku.
The analyst warned that a large-scale escalation could trigger a humanitarian crisis, including refugee flows comparable to those seen during the Syrian conflict. In such a scenario, Azerbaijan and Turkey could face serious humanitarian and security challenges, regardless of their political preferences.
“Azerbaijan does not want war and prefers that Iran’s internal issues be resolved domestically,” Shahinoglu said. “But if events spiral out of control, we must be ready for the most difficult outcomes.”
He added that contingency planning is essential, including multiple scenarios covering border security, humanitarian response, and regional stability. Ignoring these risks, he argued, would leave the country vulnerable to sudden developments beyond its control.
Shahinoglu also emphasized that any plans concerning Iran should factor in the country’s complex ethnic and social structure. While views among Iran’s Azerbaijani population are diverse, he noted that their role cannot be overlooked in broader regional calculations.
In his assessment, Azerbaijan’s approach should remain pragmatic: avoid escalation, maintain diplomatic engagement with all sides, and ensure preparedness for worst-case scenarios.
