Azerbaijan.US
Political analyst Elchin Alyoglu has argued that the idea of an independent South Azerbaijan is unrealistic under current geopolitical conditions, stressing that Western powers would not allow the emergence of a second Azerbaijani state in the region.
Speaking on Prime TV Azerbaijan, Alyoglu warned against what he described as emotional and romanticized narratives circulating in Azerbaijani media and social networks regarding political developments in Iran and the prospects for South Azerbaijan.
According to the analyst, expectations surrounding Iran’s current leadership – including optimism linked to President Masoud Pezeshkian – are misplaced.
Alyoglu emphasized that Pezeshkian represents the Iranian state, not the Azerbaijani population within Iran, and urged South Azerbaijani activists to avoid being drawn into destabilizing protests or external political agendas.
Independence as a geopolitical red line
Alyoglu argued that the creation of a second Azerbaijani state would fundamentally alter the balance of power in the region, something global and regional actors would not accept.
“An Azerbaijan of 35 million people already exists,” he said.
“The appearance of a second Azerbaijani state – let alone the prospect of unification – would dramatically strengthen Turkic states and shift regional leadership. This is precisely why such a scenario will not be permitted.”
He maintained that even if a hypothetical independence movement were to succeed temporarily, it would come at an unacceptably high cost, including international isolation and severe security risks.
Federal autonomy instead of secession
Rather than full independence, Alyoglu proposed a strategy focused on maximum cultural and political autonomy for Azerbaijanis within Iran, including a federal or autonomous framework.
He stressed that Iranian Azerbaijanis are not a national minority but a core ethnic component of the country, and that language suppression and administrative fragmentation remain central problems. In his view, autonomy could serve as a mechanism to preserve linguistic, cultural, and political rights without triggering large-scale regional conflict.
“Destroying a language means destroying a people,” Alyoglu said, pointing to the lack of Azerbaijani language status at the state level in Iran despite the population’s size.
A warning against illusion and escalation
The analyst also cautioned against believing that external powers would support Azerbaijani statehood in Iran, arguing that Western interest lies in weakening and fragmenting Iran rather than empowering a strong, unified Azerbaijani political entity.
At the same time, Alyoglu underscored that the rejection of independence does not imply retreat or passivity. Instead, he called for pragmatic, long-term political organization rooted inside Iranian Azerbaijani society rather than driven by diaspora figures or foreign sponsors.
Stability as a strategic priority
Concluding his remarks, Alyoglu stressed that regional stability, the protection of civilian populations, and the avoidance of large-scale violence should remain the primary objectives.
While acknowledging the historical, cultural, and emotional bonds linking Azerbaijanis across borders, he argued that sustainable progress depends on realistic assessments of power, law, and geopolitics – not on symbolic declarations or maximalist ambitions.
