At the Paris Peace Forum, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan delivered a message that went far beyond diplomatic niceties.
Behind his talk of “shared destinies” and “mutual independence” with Azerbaijan lay a quiet but unmistakable signal: Armenia now views Russia as a threat to the sovereignty of the South Caucasus.
Pashinyan’s remarks – made during a panel titled “At the Crossroads of Leadership” – were couched in historical reflection and careful language.
Yet his core argument was clear. Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, he said, have repeatedly gained and lost independence together, suggesting that their sovereignty has been shaped not only by internal choices but by the influence – and often the domination – of external powers.
“Perhaps we have realized there is a common threat to our independence,” Pashinyan told the audience, a statement that, in Armenia’s current political context, leaves little room for ambiguity.
Breaking the Silence on Russia
The Armenian leader’s words come amid a sharp downturn in Yerevan’s relations with Moscow. Over the past year, Russia has withdrawn peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh, frozen military assistance, and turned a deaf ear to Armenian complaints about security guarantees under the CSTO alliance.
By invoking “a common threat” to the sovereignty of all three South Caucasus states, Pashinyan effectively placed Russia in the same category as those historic powers that once dictated the region’s fate. It was a rare public acknowledgment – not just of disillusionment, but of a strategic reorientation.
From Dependency to Regional Parity
In contrast to his earlier rhetoric, which oscillated between defiance and hesitation, Pashinyan’s Paris statement echoed a broader shift toward regional pragmatism.
By mentioning Azerbaijan as a partner in this new “understanding,” he suggested that Yerevan is now willing to consider joint regional interests outside the framework of Russian mediation.
This aligns with recent Western diplomatic efforts, notably the Washington and Abu Dhabi talks, where Armenia and Azerbaijan were encouraged to advance bilateral peace without external intermediaries.
Moscow’s Growing Isolation
For Russia, the symbolism is hard to ignore. The leader of a country once regarded as Moscow’s last dependable ally in the Caucasus is now publicly defining independence in opposition to Russian influence. This is more than rhetoric – it reflects a profound political realignment within Armenia’s civil and intellectual elite.
Moscow’s response, so far, has been muted, limited to routine criticism in pro-Kremlin media. But the implications are serious: a South Caucasus increasingly self-defined, self-governed, and less dependent on Russian “security umbrellas.”
A Shared Regional Equation
Pashinyan’s reference to the parallel timelines of 1918 and 1991 was not accidental. Both were years when the South Caucasus broke free of empire – first Russian, then Soviet.
By evoking those moments in Paris, he effectively invited Baku and Tbilisi to view sovereignty not as a zero-sum game, but as a collective project of survival in a volatile geopolitical neighborhood.
The Armenian prime minister’s message marks one of his clearest ideological departures yet. For the first time, he publicly linked Armenia’s future security not to the Kremlin’s guarantees, but to regional cooperation and Western recognition.
