On August 8, Russian drones struck a SOCAR oil depot in Ukraine’s Odesa region, igniting storage tanks and damaging a diesel pipeline. Four employees were injured. Days earlier, a Russian attack hit the Orlivka gas distribution station — a critical node on the Trans-Balkan pipeline that began carrying Azerbaijani gas to Ukraine on June 28.
Let’s be clear: these were not random strikes in a warzone. They were calculated blows against Azerbaijani energy interests — a signal from Moscow to Baku that any attempt to supply energy “bypassing Russia” will be punished. Kremlin propagandists on state TV even admitted as much.
From Words to Warfare
For months, Russian hostility toward Azerbaijan has been shifting from rhetoric to action. The insults in the media gave way to cyberattacks on Azerbaijani outlets, harassment of diaspora leaders in Russia, and now, military strikes on Azerbaijani-linked infrastructure abroad.
The path to this escalation is obvious. Baku has refused to align itself with Kremlin policy, insisting on an independent foreign and economic course. Moscow resents it. The breaking point came in Washington on August 8, when President Ilham Aliyev, alongside Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and U.S. President Donald Trump, signed a joint declaration committing to permanent peace, open communications, and economic cooperation — without Russia at the table.
For the Kremlin, that was a humiliation. For Azerbaijan, it was liberation.
The End of Russia’s “Backyard”
For over two centuries, Moscow considered the South Caucasus its “backyard.” Even after Azerbaijan’s independence, Russian policy treated Baku’s sovereignty as conditional. In November 2020, as Azerbaijan’s army stood at the gates of Khankendi, Vladimir Putin abruptly brokered a ceasefire, deployed “peacekeepers” to Nagorno-Karabakh, and grabbed a role overseeing the Zangezur corridor. That arrangement is now over.
Aliyev removed Russian troops from Karabakh ahead of schedule and went to Washington to chart a future for the region — one where Russia plays no role.
The Risks for Moscow
If Moscow thinks it can pressure Baku with drone strikes and sabotage, it may find itself facing real strategic losses. Azerbaijan can reassess Russia’s use of transit routes like the North–South Corridor and Zangezur. Baku is already considering lifting its ban on arms supplies to Ukraine — a decision that would have major geopolitical implications.
Despite the attacks, Aliyev has pledged that energy cooperation with Ukraine will continue. If Russia escalates further, it risks losing not just influence in the South Caucasus but also access to infrastructure critical to its own trade routes.
Azerbaijan Is Not Alone
Russia’s nuclear arsenal may intimidate others, but Azerbaijan is not isolated. Its closest ally is NATO’s second-largest military power, Turkey. It has a strategic partnership with nuclear-armed Pakistan. And now it enjoys a deepening relationship with the United States, cemented in Washington last week.
Moscow should think carefully before turning a dispute into a permanent enmity. Because once the “safety catch” is off, Baku will not fight alone.
