The August 8, 2025, Washington summit — which saw Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan engage in direct talks with Azerbaijan and the EU, while initiating legislation to begin the EU accession process — marked a decisive turn in Armenia’s political trajectory. Pashinyan has abandoned the cautious “status quo” approach in favor of a clear pro-Western realignment.
Shifting Foreign and Domestic Policy
Since 2023, Pashinyan has been methodically reorienting Armenia toward the West:
Reducing reliance on Russia as the primary security guarantor.
Reopening channels with the EU and the U.S., discussing deeper integration.
Advancing peace talks with Azerbaijan under U.S. mediation, moving toward mutual recognition of territorial integrity.
Following the Washington meetings, the government declared the “irreversibility of the peace process,” framing coexistence with Azerbaijan as a pathway to economic stabilization and easing of regional sanctions.
Public Backlash and Falling Ratings
Despite these moves, Pashinyan’s approval has been sliding. Polls by Gallup and IRI in May 2025 showed only 11.5% approval for his performance, with just 13% believing he could solve Armenia’s key problems and 36% thinking the country was moving in the right direction. The decline is linked to slow economic recovery, post-war migration losses, and the shock to national identity among younger generations raised on nationalist narratives.
Confrontation with the Church and the “Karabakh Clan”
The Armenian Apostolic Church — led by Catholicos Garegin II — remains a powerful political actor. Tensions peaked in June 2025 when Pashinyan accused the Catholicos of supporting a coup attempt and backing anti-government forces. The Church retaliated with public condemnations, calling the prime minister a “threat to Armenian statehood,” sparking protests domestically and in the diaspora.
Parallel to this, arrests targeted opposition leaders, including Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, tycoon Samvel Karapetyan, and former security officials — many linked to the “Karabakh clan.” The government framed these as preempting a foreign-backed coup, hinting at Russian and Iranian involvement.
Strategic Crossroads
Armenia is at a decisive moment. A successful peace process and integration with the West could reshape its economy and geopolitics — but domestic resistance from entrenched nationalist, ecclesiastical, and pro-Russian circles remains potent. Pashinyan is betting his political survival on reforms and compromise with Azerbaijan, while the opposition sees a chance to regain power if peace talks stall or the economy falters.
The next year will test whether Armenia moves toward stability through reconciliation — or slides back into internal division and geopolitical limbo.
