YEREVAN, August 1, 2025 — In a televised interview with Armenia’s Fifth Channel, former President Robert Kocharyan declared that Russia is the only country capable of restraining Turkey and Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus, warning that current Armenian leadership is dangerously miscalculating the geopolitical landscape.
“No matter how you look at it, only one country has the ability to restrain them — and that’s Russia,” Kocharyan said.
“France and Macron certainly do not. France doesn’t have vital interests here, and its army numbers around 200,000, of which only about 50,000 are in combat readiness.”
The former leader argued that a prudent Armenian government would work to rebuild strong ties with Moscow in order to leverage its strategic power as a counterbalance. Instead, he accused Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s administration of alienating Russia while courting relations with states that pose existential threats to Armenia.
“This is not how international relations work,” Kocharyan asserted.
He clarified that his remarks were not a call for enmity with Turkey or a rejection of peace with Azerbaijan. However, he warned that the ambitions of both neighbors must be kept in check to protect Armenia’s sovereignty and security.
Regarding the role of the United States, Kocharyan was skeptical: “Washington neither has the capacity nor the will to restrain Turkey and Azerbaijan in this region.”
He further stressed that for at least 250 years, the South Caucasus has been a theater of geopolitical rivalry between Russia and Turkey — a pattern of war and peace that continues today and, in his view, is unlikely to change.
Commenting on perceptions that Russia is bogged down in its war against Ukraine, Kocharyan dismissed them as misinformed. “Russia has emerged as a power shaping the agenda. It is one of the top three global players, with one of the most capable militaries,” he said.
If Armenia’s current leadership fails to grasp that reality, he warned, it reflects “a fundamental lack of geopolitical literacy.”
Kocharyan concluded by stating that a lasting peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan would only be viable if it is backed by credible deterrent power. “Armenia needs real peace — not the illusion of it,” he said.
