Tbilsi, September 10
Paata Davitaia, lawyer and former lawmaker, speaking to Novosti Kavkaza, says the activation of mandates from the Giorgi Gakharia party list gives Georgian Dream 90+ votes. That removes the technical trigger for snap parliamentary elections and keeps the regular calendar through 2028.
“With those mandates active, the majority has the votes. The pretext for early polls is gone,” Davitaia notes.
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From “illegitimacy” to boycott
According to Davitaia, opposition factions are pivoting from disputing legitimacy to a formal political boycott – a tactic that preserves mandates under the rules (members must register once in the chamber, declare boycott, and then can remain absent without losing seats after six months).
“Expect a political boycott, not empty chairism,” he says. “It’s the only way to keep institutional presence while signaling protest.”
Why the “4 October revolution” won’t fly
Davitaia calls the public countdown to a “revolution day” a strategic blunder. Telegraphed plans give security services time to mobilize, build legal grounds for force, and split or exhaust organizers. He also doubts the opposition’s logistical capacity to “block” thousands of precincts.
“Revolutions aren’t scheduled. Announcing a date only strengthens the state’s hand,” Davitaia argues. “Organization wins—rhetoric doesn’t.”
Party bans and the Tsulukiani commission: a boomerang
He criticizes efforts via the Tsulukiani – led commission and legal filings to dissolve several opposition parties, calling it a dangerous precedent that any future government could mirror—fueling a cycle of mutual delegitimization.
“Once you normalize party liquidation by legal engineering, the tool will be used against you later.”
International isolation and a fragile macro picture
Davitaia says Georgia’s global standing has eroded – with talk of a technical suspension of EU visa-free travel, frozen Western support, and fading investor appetite. Short-term growth, he argues, leans on administrative controls rather than fundamentals, while long-run risks mount.
“The lari looks stable by control, not by confidence. Investment is the missing engine.”
The security constant: Russia
Any shock scenario must account for Russia’s proximity and leverage, Davitaia warns, as well as the need for coordination with partners. He sees no signs of Western backing for a forcible power change.
What to watch next
Boycott mechanics: Which parties formally register and announce a boycott to retain mandates.
Legal track: Court moves targeting party registrations and their knock-on effects.
EU track: Whether Brussels opts for a technical, time – limited suspension of visa-free travel.
Street politics: Protest stamina and discipline vs. security responses.
Economy: FDI trend, employment, and fiscal pressure as controls meet reality.
Bottom line
With majority math on its side, Georgian Dream is entrenched. The opposition’s most credible near-term lever is a disciplined parliamentary boycott – paired with organization, unity, and international outreach – not a public countdown to revolution.
Source: Novosti Kavkaza (in Russian). Full video here
