Azerbaijan.US
Political analyst Farhad Mammadov says the situation in Iran has entered a phase of heightened turbulence, creating the most serious uncertainty for Azerbaijan and the wider South Caucasus.
Speaking on the YouTube channel News of the Caucasus, Mammadov noted that protests in Iran are not new but have now taken on a more systemic character. However, he stressed that the country’s political system still lacks a clear mechanism for translating social pressure into structural political change.
According to Mammadov, Iranian authorities continue to rely on internal balancing tools to contain unrest, a strategy that has worked in previous crises. At the same time, external actors – particularly the United States and Israel – are increasingly influencing the regional environment, each pursuing different objectives regarding Iran’s future.
Mammadov emphasized that for Azerbaijan, the key issue is not ideological alignment but predictability.
“Iran can be both the greatest risk and the greatest opportunity for Azerbaijan,” he said, pointing to security threats, cross-border crime, and regional instability on one hand, and major economic potential on the other.
He warned that any external intervention in Iran could strengthen internal consolidation around the authorities rather than accelerate change, potentially prolonging instability.
In this context, Azerbaijan is expected to maintain a cautious, pragmatic approach – avoiding involvement in Iran’s internal affairs while closely monitoring developments that could affect national security.
