Kyiv – August 2025 – Russia’s missile strikes on facilities belonging to Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) in Ukraine are more than just another episode in the war’s relentless destruction. According to energy and security experts, they are a calculated – and deeply symbolic – act of spite by a Kremlin increasingly frustrated by Baku’s rising influence in European energy markets.
Mikhail Honchar, president of the “Strategy XXI” Center for Global Studies, told RBC-Ukraine that these attacks have little to do with the battlefield and everything to do with Moscow’s political grudges. “Russia can’t confront Azerbaijan directly in the South Caucasus – it doesn’t have the power, and it doesn’t want to alienate Turkey,” Honchar said. “So instead, it lashes out in smaller, vindictive ways.”
Punishment for Energy Independence
Over the past three years, Azerbaijan has quietly become a key player in the European Union’s quest to reduce dependence on Russian gas. Through the Southern Gas Corridor, Baku has increased supplies to Southern Europe and the Balkans, while also opening the door to potential deliveries to Ukraine. For Moscow, this is more than an economic threat – it’s a symbolic reminder that the Kremlin’s once-dominant grip on Europe’s energy supply is slipping.
“The fact that SOCAR is expanding even into Ukraine – a country at war with Russia – is intolerable to the Kremlin’s imperial ego,” Honchar noted. “The strikes were a message: ‘We can hurt you anywhere.’ But strategically, it’s a hollow gesture. SOCAR’s operations and Azerbaijan’s energy policy won’t be derailed by a few missiles.”
A Pattern of ‘Hybrid Vendettas’
Analysts say this is not the first time Moscow has resorted to indirect retaliation against Baku. In recent years, Russia has:
Used pro-Kremlin media to smear Azerbaijan’s leadership and question its sovereignty.
Encouraged separatist narratives in Karabakh before the 2020 war, while posing as a “peacekeeper.”
Weaponized trade restrictions against Azerbaijani agricultural exports during moments of political tension.
“This is what I call ‘multidimensional sabotage’ – when you can’t win outright, you nibble away at your rival’s interests in different theaters,” Honchar said. “It’s petty geopolitics at its worst.”
Azerbaijan’s Strong Position
Despite Moscow’s posturing, Baku is far from isolated. Interest in Azerbaijani gas continues to grow, including from major U.S. energy players like ExxonMobil, which has shown interest in developing the untapped Karabakh field in the Caspian Sea. The country’s strategic partnership with Turkey and improving ties with the EU give it leverage that Moscow can no longer ignore.
“Azerbaijan is in a strong position,” Honchar concluded. “These attacks are a sign of Russia’s weakness, not its strength. They confirm that Moscow no longer dictates the rules – it reacts to the successes of others.”
For now, the missiles aimed at SOCAR may have damaged infrastructure, but in the long run, they have only reinforced Baku’s resolve to expand its role as a reliable energy partner for Europe – and a sovereign actor immune to Kremlin blackmail.
