Tbilisi, August 31, 2025
Political analyst Vladimir Kopchak, speaking to Novosti Kavkaza, cast doubt on the possibility of any breakthrough in relations between Moscow and Baku, even if Russian President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev meet on the sidelines of upcoming summits.
Kopchak noted that much of the coverage of such encounters is reduced to “snippets of footage — who smiled, who sat down, who embraced,” but stressed that real political substance is lacking. “I don’t think this format, or these circumstances, allow for any constructive outcome,” he said.
Yekaterinburg and Zangezur
The analyst argued that the crisis in Russian–Azerbaijani relations cannot be “played down” in the medium term. He linked this to unresolved issues, including the Yekaterinburg plane incident and Armenia’s obligations on the Zangezur corridor.
“The way out is the same as the way in — admit responsibility, pay compensation, punish those guilty for Yekaterinburg,” Kopchak stated.
At the same time, he suggested that Moscow is attempting to modify its instruments of pressure on both Baku and Yerevan, though with limited effect.
Washington’s Role
Kopchak highlighted the United States as the decisive factor in Armenia’s future course. He argued that Brussels is unlikely to shape events, while Washington is adopting a far more pragmatic approach.
“If the U.S. sets up construction camps and equipment along the road through Meghri, I don’t think anyone in Yerevan will resist,” he said.
According to him, Azerbaijan’s calculation is that under Donald Trump, Armenia will have no choice but to allow the corridor to proceed. Yet he added a note of caution: “I want Azerbaijan’s line to be right, but I have strong doubts. The process may start, but I am not convinced it will lead to quick results.”
Source: Novosti Kavkaza (in Russian). Full video here
