REAL Party executive Natig Jafarli has pushed back against claims circulating on social media that Azerbaijan is “turning into Turkmenistan” following the arrest of opposition figures, including Ali Karimli.
In a detailed statement published on Facebook, Jafarli argued that the comparison is not only politically inaccurate but economically impossible.
“The Turkmen model is too expensive – Azerbaijan cannot sustain it”
Jafarli noted that Turkmenistan maintains its rigid political system through an extensive and costly package of social subsidies that Azerbaijan does not have the capacity to replicate. Converting figures into manats, he highlighted:
Minimum monthly salary: 581 AZN
Petrol price: 0.71 AZN per liter
First 35 kWh of electricity: free; then 12.13 AZN per 1,000 kWh
50 m³ of natural gas monthly: free; then 13.6 AZN per 1,000 m³
GDP per capita (2024): $9,166 in Turkmenistan vs $7,284 in Azerbaijan
According to Jafarli:
“To become Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan would need a budget 50% larger than it has today, a GDP 30% higher, and a far more generous social welfare system. That is simply not achievable – nor is it sustainable.”
“In countries where rights are restricted, the state compensates with benefits”
The REAL Party leader argued that global practice – from the Gulf states to Central Asia – shows a consistent pattern:
when governments reduce political freedoms, they compensate citizens with tangible economic benefits.
If political space narrows without corresponding socio-economic guarantees, he warned, public discontent inevitably rises:
“Restricting rights while giving nothing in return leads to peak levels of social and political frustration.”
Jafarli described claims that Azerbaijan has already become Turkmenistan as “shallow and disrespectful” toward society, history, and the country’s republican tradition rooted in the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic (ADR).
On arrests and the “Ramizgate” case
Addressing recent detentions, Jafarli expressed support for journalists, civil society representatives and detained politicians, including Ali Karimli:
“If the accusations are unfounded, they must be answered with facts – and those detained should be released.”
He also issued a warning to the authorities regarding the high-profile case involving former presidential administration chief Ramiz Mehdiyev:
“If the charges in the ‘Ramizgate’ case are not backed by solid, irrefutable evidence, it will damage the credibility of the state. The state belongs to all of us – and its seriousness must not be questioned.”
“Azerbaijan has ADR’s ‘vaccination’ against authoritarianism”
Concluding his statement, Jafarli said that Azerbaijan’s political culture and historical experience make a Turkmen-style model unrealistic:
“Azerbaijan will never become Turkmenistan. We must continue working toward a genuine Republic – and that is ultimately the direction the country will take.”
