Azerbaijan.US
Azerbaijani economist and public commentator Natig Jafarli says Iran’s potential return to the global economy could have far-reaching consequences not only for the region, but also for Azerbaijan.
In a Facebook post, Jafarli compared the economic indicators of Turkey and Iran, noting that despite having nearly identical populations, the two countries operate on vastly different economic scales.
According to his estimates, Turkey’s 2024 state budget reached $450-480 billion, with GDP at $1.323 trillion, while Iran’s budget stood at roughly $50–55 billion and GDP at around $356 billion, figures affected by currency volatility in both countries.
As a result, Turkey’s budget is 8–9 times larger than Iran’s, while its GDP is 4-5 times higher. However, Jafarli stresses that Iran remains one of the world’s potentially wealthiest countries, whose current limitations are largely the result of sanctions.
He argues that if sanctions are lifted and Iran reintegrates into the global economy, the country could attract hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign investment within a short period. Describing Iran as a large and “hungry” market, Jafarli says many countries are already prepared to invest once restrictions are removed.
According to his assessment, Iran has the capacity within 5-8 years to triple its GDP and increase its state budget tenfold, driven by investment inflows and internal economic potential.
Jafarli also points to deep social changes underway in Iran. He notes that around 75% of the population did not witness the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and that younger generations no longer subscribe to the ideological narratives of that era. He compares the current situation to the final years of the Soviet Union, when change was driven organically from within society.
In this context, Jafarli believes Iran’s economic comeback could turn into a major economic driver for Azerbaijan. He argues that if Azerbaijan succeeds in positioning itself as a regional hub for Western companies operating in Iran – hosting headquarters and managing operations from Baku – the resulting economic gains could rival Azerbaijan’s oil revenues.
At the same time, he warns against external intervention in Iran. Any outside pressure or interference, he says, would only undermine natural internal change and push society to consolidate around the existing власти, ultimately slowing transformation.
