Azerbaijan.US
Iran is entering a new phase of instability driven by a deep systemic crisis rather than a short-term protest wave, Azerbaijani political analyst Farhad Mammadov said during a recent analytical broadcast reviewing developments of the past week.
According to Mammadov, the protests that swept parts of Iran should be seen as the result of long-accumulating economic and governance failures. He argued that the country’s economic model no longer meets the basic needs of its population, while a significant share of revenues is concentrated within security institutions and structures linked to the supreme leadership, limiting the government’s ability to manage resources effectively.
“The system has reached a point where it can no longer respond to social and economic pressures,” Mammadov said, noting that inflation, currency depreciation and the tightening of international sanctions have amplified public frustration. While Iran continues to generate income through alternative markets, he stressed that financial flows increasingly bypass the formal state economy.
Mammadov underlined that the early stage of the protests involved diverse social groups and was not driven by ethnic divisions. However, the subsequent use of force by authorities, he said, followed a familiar pattern seen in rigid political systems facing large-scale unrest.
The analyst emphasized that the implications of Iran’s instability extend well beyond its borders. Developments inside the country directly affect the security environment of the South Caucasus, the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. At the same time, he described large-scale foreign military intervention as unlikely in the short term, citing high political and security costs and uncertainty over outcomes.
Commenting on Azerbaijan’s position, Mammadov said Baku has adopted a cautious and pragmatic approach. He stressed that Azerbaijan does not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and that any use of Azerbaijani territory or airspace against Iran is categorically excluded.
A more serious risk, he argued, would be a potential internal split within Iran’s power structures rather than an ethnic confrontation.
“The most dangerous scenario would be a fracture inside the security and governing apparatus itself,” Mammadov noted, adding that no clear signs of such a split are visible at present, though the possibility of renewed unrest cannot be ruled out.
In this context, he said Azerbaijan’s priority remains maintaining stability along its borders, closely monitoring regional shifts and preparing for a range of possible scenarios.
As Iran’s vulnerabilities become more apparent, Mammadov concluded, the broader region is likely to face a prolonged period of uncertainty rather than a quick return to equilibrium.
