By Azerbaijan.US Editorial Board
Global politics has entered the new year at high speed. Conflicts are multiplying, old rules are eroding, and uncertainty has become the new normal. Some crises feel distant. Others unfold uncomfortably close. Iran belongs firmly to the second category.
For years, international attention has focused on external pressure on Tehran – sanctions, nuclear negotiations, military rhetoric from Washington and Tel Aviv. These risks remain real. But today, Iran’s most serious challenge is no longer coming from outside. It is growing from within.
The economy as a breaking point
Iran’s economic problems are not new, but recent developments suggest a shift in scale. Currency devaluation, rising inflation, and a steady decline in living standards have pushed social frustration toward a critical threshold. What once simmered quietly has begun to surface openly.
A comparison with Turkey illustrates the depth of the problem. Despite similar population sizes and territory – and despite Iran’s vast oil and gas reserves – Turkey’s state budget is several times larger. This gap is not theoretical. It translates directly into wages, public services, investment, and expectations.
Inside Iran, the question increasingly asked is a simple one: where do the country’s resources go?
Foreign ambitions versus domestic reality
For years, Iran’s regional strategy relied on projecting influence beyond its borders. Support for allied groups and involvement in regional conflicts were presented as strategic necessities. Today, however, these priorities are being openly questioned by ordinary citizens.
Recent protests have featured slogans that signal a clear shift in public mood: domestic welfare before foreign commitments. What began as socio-economic frustration has gradually taken on political overtones, spreading geographically and becoming harder to contain.
Reports of cities where central authority struggles to maintain control are no longer isolated anecdotes. They are warning signs.
Fading pillars of cohesion
Iranian society was long held together by two powerful forces: religious legitimacy and external pressure. Both are now weakening.
Recent elections highlighted a growing role of ethnic and regional identity in political behavior. Voting patterns increasingly reflect national and cultural affiliations rather than purely religious alignment. This trend is especially visible in Azerbaijani, Kurdish, and other non-Persian regions.
Attempts to reframe national unity around Persian nationalism face structural limits. Persians do not form an absolute majority, and exclusionary narratives risk accelerating fragmentation rather than restoring cohesion.
The United States factor – and its limits
Against this backdrop, Washington’s attention to Iran has intensified. Statements from the U.S. administration have grown tougher, particularly regarding potential force against protesters. Yet even here, there is no single, predictable scenario. Economic pressure, diplomacy, and military options may be combined or recalibrated as events unfold.
History suggests that external pressure during internal crises rarely stabilizes societies. More often, it deepens volatility.
Why this matters for Azerbaijan and the region
Iran’s internal dynamics are not an abstract geopolitical issue. It is a neighboring state, home to tens of millions of people, including millions of ethnic Azerbaijanis. Any serious destabilization will inevitably spill across borders – economically, politically, and socially.
This is why sober analysis matters more than rhetoric. The international system is moving toward a reality where power, alliances, and resilience outweigh formal rules. In such an environment, states must rely first on their own stability and strategic clarity.
Iran is approaching a decisive moment. The choices ahead are difficult, and the margin for error is narrowing. Whether the pressure results in reform, repression, or fragmentation remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the country’s future will be shaped less by foreign threats than by its unresolved internal contradictions.
