The Dutch banking giant ING Group has revised upward its inflation projections for Azerbaijan for the next two years, expecting average annual inflation of 5.7% in both 2025 and 2026, followed by a sharper increase to 8.9% in 2027.
According to new estimates cited by Report, ING raised its forecast for the current year by 0.1 percentage points, and for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, while its 2027 outlook remains unchanged.
ING analysts expect inflation to reach 5.8% in Q4 2025, then stabilize at around 5.7-5.9% throughout 2026.
How ING’s Forecast Compares to Others
Azerbaijan’s own institutions project lower inflation:
Ministry of Economy:
2025 – 5.4%
2026 – 4.8%
2027 – 4.5%
Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA):
2025 – up to 6%
2026 – around 5.7%
Major international organizations are more conservative:
United Nations:
2025 – 3.6%
2026 – 3.1%
World Bank:
2025–2026 – 2.3%
Asian Development Bank:
2025 – 4.2%
2026 – 3.5%
Credit rating agencies offer mixed expectations:
Moody’s:
2025 – 4%
2026 – 3%
Fitch Ratings:
2025 – 5.3%
2026 – 4.6%
Fitch Solutions:
2025 – 5.7%
2026 – 5.5%
2027 – 4.8%
Last year, Azerbaijan recorded average annual inflation of 2.2%, while the rate for January-October 2025 stood at 5.7%.
