\Dutch banking giant ING Group has revised its forecast for Azerbaijan’s economic growth, projecting a 1.6% GDP increase in 2025, 2.8% in 2026, and 2% in 2027, according to the bank’s latest macroeconomic outlook.
The new figures mark a slight upward revision for 2025 – up 0.1 percentage points from the previous forecast – while projections for the following years remain unchanged. On average, ING expects Azerbaijan’s economy to expand by 2.13% annually over the 2025–2027 period.
Quarterly Outlook
ING forecasts 2.5% growth for the fourth quarter of 2025, 4% in Q1 2026, followed by 2.5%, 3.5%, and 1% growth rates for subsequent quarters through the end of 2026. In 2027, quarterly GDP growth is projected to accelerate gradually from 0.5% in Q1 to 3.5% in Q4.
Comparison with Other Forecasts
The Azerbaijani Ministry of Economy expects higher growth – 3% in 2025, 2.9% in 2026, and 3.3% in 2027.
International institutions remain more cautious:
S&P Global projects around 2% annual growth in 2025–2026.
Fitch Ratings forecasts 3.5% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026.
Moody’s anticipates 2.5% annually.
The IMF expects 3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026.
The EBRD foresees 2% growth in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects 2.4% and 2%, respectively.
The World Bank estimates 2.6% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026.
Inflation to Rise Through 2027
ING Group expects average inflation in Azerbaijan to reach 5.8% in 2025, 5.9% in 2026, and 8.9% in 2027.
Compared to earlier forecasts, inflation projections for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively.
By quarter, inflation is forecast at 6.1% in Q4 2025, 5.9–6.1% throughout 2026, and a sharper 8.6–9.3% range in early 2027 before stabilizing toward the year’s end.
The Ministry of Economy expects milder inflation – 5.4% in 2025, 4.8% in 2026, and 4.5% in 2027.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) forecasts around 6% inflation in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026.
Other institutions forecast significantly lower figures:
UN: 3.6% in 2025, 3.1% in 2026
World Bank: 2.3% in both years
ADB: 4.2% in 2025, 3.5% in 2026
S&P Global: 4%
Moody’s: 3%
Fitch Ratings: 5.3% in 2025, 4.6% in 2026
For reference, Azerbaijan’s average inflation stood at 2.2% in 2024 and 5.7% for January–September 2025.
Central Bank Rate Policy
ING analysts expect the CBA to raise its key interest rate to 7.25% in Q4 2025, maintaining that level through mid-2026.
The rate could then increase to 7.5% in Q3 2026, 8% in Q4, and peak at 11% in Q1 2027, before gradually easing to 10.5% by the end of 2027.
The CBA most recently left its policy rate unchanged at 7% on October 22, citing a balance between inflation control and growth support.
