Baku, July 14 — The Dutch financial giant ING Group has raised its forecast for Azerbaijan’s average annual inflation in 2025 to 5.3%, up by 0.1 percentage points from its previous estimate. The bank also projects quarterly inflation to reach 4.6% in Q3 and 4.8% in Q4 of this year.
Looking ahead, ING expects inflation to slightly fluctuate throughout 2026, with rates projected at 4.6% in Q1, 4.9% in Q2, 5.2% in Q3, and 5.7% in Q4, keeping its annual average forecast for 2026 steady at 5.1%.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Economy anticipates a more modest 5.1% inflation rate this year and 4.3% in 2026. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan, in its January outlook, projected 5.5% inflation for 2025 and 3.8% for 2026.
However, other international bodies expect inflation to be significantly lower:
The United Nations forecasts 3.6% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.
The World Bank maintains a notably conservative view, predicting just 2.3% inflation for both years.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects 5.7% average inflation in 2025, with a year-end rate of 5.2%, falling to 4.5% in 2026, and stabilizing at 4% from 2027 to 2029.
Ratings agencies also weigh in: S&P Global projects 4% this year and 3% next year, Fitch Ratings sees 5.3% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, while Moody’s has not specified a precise figure but aligns with moderate expectations.
According to the State Statistics Committee, average annual inflation in Azerbaijan stood at just 2.2% in 2024, while for January–June 2025, the figure has already climbed to 5.9%, signaling rising cost pressures.
The wide range of forecasts underscores the uncertainty surrounding Azerbaijan’s economic trajectory amid global inflationary trends, shifting energy revenues, and domestic fiscal policy.
