Armenian political analyst and member of the “Peace Bridge” civic initiative Boris Navasardyan says the current momentum in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations remains fragile despite the progress achieved since the August 8 Washington declaration facilitated by U.S. President Donald Trump.
In an interview with Vesti.az, Navasardyan described both the peace process and the wider geopolitical environment as highly vulnerable and urged both sides to make urgent use of the opportunity before it disappears.
Risks Driven More by External Factors Than Domestic Politics
According to Navasardyan, the primary risks to the peace process stem from shifting global dynamics rather than political changes inside Armenia or Azerbaijan.
He noted that Trump’s personal involvement gave decisive impetus to the August breakthrough, but warned that the U.S. political cycle could slow or even reverse progress:
“The President’s term is limited. Elections to Congress next year may constrain Washington’s ability to maintain the same level of engagement. Even the recent shutdown delayed TRIPP discussions.”
He added that the eventual shape of a Russia-Ukraine settlement could also sharply affect the South Caucasus:
“Any renewed Russian activism may alter the calculus in both Baku and Yerevan.”
The situation around Iran, demonstrated by the 12-day Iran–Israel conflict earlier this year, also remains a significant destabilizing factor.
As for Armenia’s domestic politics, Navasardyan dismissed fears that a change of government would derail the peace track:
“Even with a political shift, Armenia will act pragmatically according to geopolitical realities. Azerbaijan, I hope, will respond with composure and not treat elections as a casus belli.”
Yet he warned that the combination of external and internal uncertainties makes rapid progress essential:
“Both countries must use the window of opportunity now. It can close at any moment.”
South Caucasus Undergoing “Contradictory Transformations”
Commenting on regional trends, Navasardyan described the South Caucasus as undergoing uneven and contradictory political shifts.
He pointed to Georgia’s sharp deterioration in relations with the EU, Armenia’s recent improvements in international rankings despite domestic controversy, and Azerbaijan’s growing acceptance as an economic and geopolitical actor:
“Despite very different political trajectories, certain forces still bind the region together – the shared Soviet legacy and, most importantly, how Baku-Yerevan relations evolve after the conflict.”
He argued that the normalization process could become the “core axis” for shaping a new regional identity independent of major power blocs.
Armenia’s Attitudes Toward TRIPP and Regional Connectivity
Asked about Armenian perceptions of the emerging TRIPP corridor and Azerbaijan’s expanding presence in Central Asia, Navasardyan said domestic political competition fuels skepticism ahead of Armenia’s 2026 elections.
However, he stressed that normalized relations would fundamentally shift attitudes:
“Healthy competition over routes and logistics is beneficial. If relations with Azerbaijan normalize, Armenia will gain from deeper links between the South Caucasus and Central Asia.”
New Geopolitical Alignments Inevitable
Navasardyan said the weakening of post-Soviet structures makes the emergence of new alliances inevitable across the South Caucasus.
He noted that even within the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), competition for leadership remains:
“Every state wants an independent, not subordinate role. New partnerships will continue to form, and competition will intensify.”
For Armenia, he said, diversification is already visible – from ties with the U.S., EU and India to the recent rapprochement with Kazakhstan and continued coordination with Russia:
“Balancing these vectors is possible. The essential condition is stable, good-neighborly relations in our own region.”
