By Azerbaijan.US Editorial Board
Relations between Azerbaijan and Russia remain in a prolonged freeze – calm on the surface, strained underneath. The open confrontation that marked the past year has faded, yet trust has not returned. The question now lingering over both capitals is simple but symbolic:
Will President Ilham Aliyev congratulate Vladimir Putin on his birthday on October 7 – and will he attend the CIS summit on October 10, where the Russian leader is expected to appear?
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Between Silence and Distance
The rhetoric has softened on both sides. Russian state media have toned down their criticism of Baku, while Azerbaijani officials refrain from harsh public rebukes. But this is a pause, not a reconciliation.
In Baku, the memory of the AZAL plane incident remains a painful and unresolved issue. Many believe that until Moscow admits responsibility and issues an official apology, relations will not return to the warmth they once had.
The Politics of Gestures
At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana, Aliyev’s handshake with Putin was notably cold – a brief, formal moment devoid of the friendly rapport that once defined their meetings.
Observers saw it as a clear signal: the era of “special relations” is over. What remains is pragmatic diplomacy, stripped of sentiment.
Interestingly, on August 22, Putin sent a congratulatory message to Mehriban Aliyeva, Azerbaijan’s First Vice-President, on her birthday. He wished her health, happiness, and success, extending greetings to President Aliyev and the family.
It was a polite gesture – but one that did little to thaw the frost between Moscow and Baku.
Reopening to Europe
Meanwhile, President Aliyev is building new bridges elsewhere. His recent meeting with Emmanuel Macron – once one of Baku’s fiercest critics – marked a quiet diplomatic breakthrough.
Azerbaijan’s foreign policy today is driven less by nostalgia for “strategic partnerships” and more by balance and diversification.
Baku is re-engaging with Europe, strengthening ties with the United States, and deepening cooperation within the Turkic world – all while keeping a careful diplomatic distance from Moscow.
Dushanbe as a Test
All eyes now turn to the CIS summit on October 10 in Dushanbe, where Putin will host regional leaders.
Whether Aliyev attends will send a signal far beyond the protocol list.
If he stays away, it will confirm Azerbaijan’s shift away from Russia’s orbit.
If he attends, the gesture will be one of calculated diplomacy – not camaraderie.
Cold, Polite, Predictable
The current state of Azerbaijani-Russian relations can best be described as cold politeness.
Azerbaijan is not seeking confrontation, but it no longer accepts the dynamics of dependency.
Russia, meanwhile, seems unwilling to admit its missteps or recalibrate its regional posture.
Even if Aliyev sends birthday greetings to Putin, it will be a courtesy, not a connection.
