BAKU — September 8, 2025
Azerbaijani MP Rasim Musabekov says last week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) showcase was more signal than substance, arguing Beijing used the summit to project superpower heft without committing to a NATO-style bloc.
Speaking on the YouTube channel “Novosti Kavkaza,” Musabekov framed the SCO as a loose political platform with modest economic integration and no real military component.
Musabekov noted that, unlike the Cold War–era structures that buttressed Soviet power, today’s China “doesn’t need to build a bloc to be weighty.” He described the SCO’s rulebook as thin, with most practical issues—trade, visas, energy – still handled bilaterally among members. That limits the forum’s ability to coordinate on security or commerce beyond set-piece optics.
Azerbaijan’s China track
The MP sees Azerbaijan–China ties deepening on several fronts: renewables (wind and solar), EV assembly and components, and digital technologies for e-commerce and public administration. Strategically, he said, both sides are converging on the Middle Corridor – moving cargo from Central Asia across the Caspian through Azerbaijan and onward via Georgia/Turkey, with a possible branch through Armenia if conditions allow.
Musabekov highlighted Alat Free Economic Zone as a potential logistics and light-processing hub for Chinese goods tailored to regional standards and markets. He also pointed to growing two- and trilateral formats – Azerbaijan with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkey – that sit outside the SCO’s limited mechanisms yet advance concrete projects.
With Moscow: “cold estrangement,” not escalation
Turning to Russia, Musabekov said relations are slipping into a “cool, minimal” phase – “cold estrangement” marked by fewer high-level contacts and reduced cultural programming – but not toward open confrontation. He called the chance of a Russian military provocation against Azerbaijan “near zero,” citing geography, existing force posture, and Turkey’s deterrent weight in the Black Sea and the straits.
On economics, he argued EU sanctions curbing products refined from Russian crude will sting Moscow more than any seasonal Russian curbs on Azerbaijani fruit and vegetables. Baku, he added, is focused on pragmatic, contract-backed expansion of gas exports rather than grand pipelines without firm buyers.
Gas math: swaps now, mega-projects later
Musabekov sees room for limited Turkmen gas swaps – on the order of 5 bcm—via existing connections and compressor upgrades, allowing Azerbaijan to redirect its own volumes to premium European markets. Any new trans-Caspian pipeline, he cautioned, would require $20–25 billion, long-term offtake contracts, and political underwriting from the EU and U.S. to share risk. Until then, incremental capacity and targeted regional gasification – Turkey’s regions, the Balkans—offer near-term wins.
Turkey’s growing role
Across defense and energy, Turkey remains central, Musabekov said, with Kazakhstan tightening links to Ankara and Baku. Joint drills and defense-industrial cooperation point to a broader Ankara-Baku-Astana-Tashkent arc that advances practical security interests without waiting on SCO consensus.
For Musabekov, the SCO is pageantry with limits; China’s corridors and targeted regional alignments are where deals get done. With Russia, Azerbaijan will lower the temperature and harden resilience – more logistics capacity, more diversified energy routes—while avoiding the trap of rhetorical escalation.
Source: Novosti Kavkaza (in Russian). Full video here
