Baku, September 01, 2025 – Azerbaijan raised its 2025 inflation outlook to 5.4%, up from 4.6%, citing pricier imports and sticky logistics. The Central Bank’s July path still keeps price growth single-digit — 5.7% in 2025, 5.3% in 2026 — but the track is higher than officials hoped even a few months ago.
Economists point first to imported inflation: non-dollar purchases get costlier when the dollar weakens against the euro and other currencies, and freight remains patchy. At home, higher budget spending and this year’s wage, pension and benefit increases have firmed demand. Tariff moves matter less, lawmakers say.
The squeeze is most visible in kitchens. Food inflation above 7% hits families that spend a larger share on groceries. “Imported inflation is the main factor,” said MP Vugar Bayramov, arguing that reducing import dependence is the only durable fix. Analysts Eyyub Kerimli and Xalid Kerimli add global supply limits — from export curbs on grains and meat to war-related disruptions — and note that utility adjustments and the dollar’s slide have fed through to prices.
Policy talk now centers on more domestic supply — agriculture, non-oil output, cold-chain and storage — plus targeted support for low-income households if needed. The aim is modest: keep inflation in the 5–6% band next year while chipping away at exposure to foreign shocks.
