This week, parliamentary discussions on next year’s budget continued, and one of the key issues under focus was the forecasted level of inflation in Azerbaijan.
The discussions also touched on whether there would be price increases in food products. Most economic experts believe that we will see some price hikes next year. Nevertheless, official figures indicate that inflation will actually be lower than this year’s level.
So how much might food prices rise next year?
Speaking to Musavat.com on the issue, economist Vusala Ahmadova explained: “The Central Bank is forecasting average annual inflation of around 5.3% for 2026. Another official source, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, predicts inflation at 4.8% in 2026.
However, keep in mind that overall inflation figures cover all expenses, while food prices often follow a different trajectory. Current data shows that in the first nine months of 2025, food prices increased by 7.4%. For example, in October, food inflation was around 8.2%. This means that even if overall inflation is in the 4-6% range, annual food price increases have been between 6-9%. In addition, beyond the official consumer price index, we must consider real market prices-that is, unofficial inflation.”
The economist noted that while official averages might suggest food price increases of 7-8%, in reality, for some products the rise is much higher: “In other words, unofficial inflation can be 10-20% or even more. Another point is that the official ‘minimum consumption basket’ includes 528 types of goods and services, but this basket does not always match families’ real daily expenses.
Some essential foods may see much sharper price jumps-sometimes 20-60% within a year. Independent research shows that prices of key staple foods like flour, bread, oil, and vegetables have risen by as much as 40-60% over the year. Household spending patterns are very diverse, and relying solely on the ‘minimum consumption basket’ sometimes does not reflect reality. While some items become significantly more expensive, others may get cheaper. This shows that actual market inflation is likely to outstrip official statistics.
Considering the current official inflation forecasts and recent monthly food inflation trends, a 7-10% increase in food prices in 2026 seems realistic. Additional factors—such as rising producer prices in agriculture, changes in global food prices, the cost of imported feed, raw materials, fertilizers, and so on-could put upward pressure on food prices. Domestic agricultural productivity and local demand are also factors that can drive food prices higher.”
According to Vusala Ahmadova, if negative internal or external shocks occur, some products could even see price increases of 15-20%.
