Turkey’s role in the South Caucasus remains widely underestimated, while Ankara’s long-standing “Azerbaijan First” policy continues to constrain normalization with Armenia, according to Benyamin Poghosyan, Senior Research Fellow at the Yerevan-based think tank APRI Armenia.
Speaking to Civilet, Poghosyan said the South Caucasus is strategically vital for Turkey, both geopolitically and geo-economically, as a gateway to Central Asia and a key transit corridor for energy and transport routes linking the region to Europe. Despite this, Turkey’s policy toward Armenia, he argued, remains closely aligned with Azerbaijan’s interests.
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According to Poghosyan, Azerbaijan exerts significant leverage over Turkey, citing energy cooperation, more than $20 billion in Azerbaijani investments in the Turkish economy, and political dynamics surrounding Turkey’s 2023 presidential election. This leverage, he said, explains why Ankara has repeatedly delayed steps toward opening the Armenian-Turkish border.
The expert stressed that Azerbaijan has no strategic interest in a strong and economically integrated Armenia, preferring instead to keep the country isolated. In this context, Poghosyan warned that reopening regional transport routes solely to connect Azerbaijan with Turkey – without granting Armenia parallel access to regional and international markets – could leave Yerevan marginalized.
He also commented on recent remarks by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan about possible “symbolic steps” toward Armenia, suggesting they may include limited border openings for diplomats or third-country nationals. However, Poghosyan described such moves as overdue and insufficient, noting that similar commitments were made as early as 2022.
“These steps may be positive, but they are minimal and long delayed. They should not be portrayed as a breakthrough,” he said.
Poghosyan concluded that Armenia should pursue a balanced and diversified foreign policy, avoiding becoming an arena for competition among major powers, and insist on comprehensive regional connectivity that benefits all sides rather than selective arrangements.
