Baku, July 14, 2025
If Armenia takes meaningful steps within the framework of direct negotiations with Azerbaijan, the influence of non-regional players could be significantly reduced, said political analyst Ilgar Velizade in comments to Report.
Velizade stressed that without a final peace agreement and the opening of the Zangezur corridor, tensions in the South Caucasus will remain unresolved—potentially leading to future conflicts. “The Armenian side understands this,” he said.
According to him, while global powers like Russia, the U.S., and the EU have praised the recent Aliyev-Pashinyan meeting in Abu Dhabi, their support is largely rhetorical and driven by competing geopolitical agendas.
“The difference now is that Baku and Yerevan are negotiating directly—without mediators. That limits the ability of outside forces to interfere. It’s a strategic advantage for both sides,” Velizade noted.
He argued that Armenia, long influenced by external powers, must reclaim political agency. “If Armenia anchors itself to a bilateral agenda, outside interference will naturally decline.”
However, the political scientist warned that if Yerevan gives in to pressure from foreign patrons, the fragile peace process could fall apart. “Progress has been made across key issues, and there is cautious optimism that both the corridor and a formal agreement could be finalized later this year or in early 2026.”
Velizade also noted that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has no interest in returning to war. “Azerbaijan is moderating this peace process. Pashinyan, too, doesn’t want conflict—he wants to advance his ‘Real Armenia’ project and sideline revanchist forces. That requires peace.”
He concluded by highlighting a rare convergence of interests between the two sides: “Both Baku and Yerevan share deep concerns about Russian influence. This alignment presents a valuable window of opportunity.”
