Speaking on YouTube channel Daily Europe Online, Azerbaijani political analyst Ilgar Velizade (head of the South Caucasus Political Scientists Club) said the Copenhagen gathering of the European Political Community underscored shifting attitudes in Europe toward the South Caucasus, alongside steady movement in Armenia–Azerbaijan normalization.
Velizade highlighted President Ilham Aliyev’s meetings with European leaders, including France’s Emmanuel Macron, noting that the optics alone signaled Paris “understands and accepts the post-conflict realities.” He contrasted Macron’s earlier rhetoric with the current willingness to acknowledge the Washington-brokered progress between Baku and Yerevan.
On the sidelines dynamic, Velizade welcomed the Aliyev–Pashinyan exchange as part of a broader, incremental track toward a finalized peace, while cautioning that he does not expect dramatic breakthroughs from such brief formats.
Addressing France’s role in the region, he pointed to Italy’s growing presence in Azerbaijan as an “unpleasant surprise” for Paris and a reason Macron can’t remain aloof. He also said the Baku Initiative Group (which campaigns against colonialism) “continues its work,” even if less publicly of late.
Turning to Armenian domestic politics, Velizade argued that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is focused on securing his “real Armenia” agenda ahead of next year’s elections, including constitutional changes to formalize a post-Karahbakh political order.
He linked recent attacks on the Washington peace track to elements of the Armenian diaspora in the United States, asserting that some actors are mobilizing resources to boost revanchist forces at home—claims he framed within Armenia’s polarized pre-election climate.
On Moldova’s elections, Velizade described a sweeping consolidation of administrative levers by pro-EU authorities, while noting that not all critics of the government are necessarily “pro-Russian.”
More broadly, he warned that sustained external meddling-by any side-locks societies into a chronic state of imbalance and latent confrontation.
Despite the frictions, Velizade’s bottom line was pragmatic: Europe is recalibrating to the South Caucasus as it is, Baku–Yerevan contacts are inching forward, and regional players are adapting to a new balance in which transactional diplomacy is outpacing maximalist narratives.
