Berlin, August 1, 2025 — German security analyst Oliver Rolofs, writing in Focus, declares that Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus is collapsing—and Azerbaijan is leading the shift. In a sharply worded article, Rolofs argues that Moscow’s imperial-style intimidation no longer works, as former satellite states grow bolder in rejecting Kremlin dominance.
Azerbaijan, traditionally cautious in dealings with Moscow, has taken an assertive turn following two serious incidents: the downing of an Azerbaijani passenger plane by a Russian missile in December 2024, killing 38 people, and the suspicious deaths of two Azerbaijani citizens in Russian police custody in mid-2025. Despite diplomatic protests from Baku, Russia issued no real apology.
President Ilham Aliyev’s remarks praising Ukraine’s resistance and urging it never to surrender “occupation” marked a dramatic political message. Russia responded with racist rhetoric and threats of “military measures,” but Azerbaijan didn’t flinch—instead, it launched legal proceedings against Moscow and detained several Russian nationals in Baku, including alleged intelligence-linked media personnel.
The article notes a broader geopolitical realignment across the former Soviet space:
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Armenia is pursuing peace talks with Azerbaijan without Russian mediation, while PM Nikol Pashinyan seeks new allies in the West. Armenia’s accession to the International Criminal Court (which has indicted Putin) is cited as a symbolic rupture.
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Kazakhstan has rejected recognition of Russian-backed “people’s republics” in Ukraine, elevated Kazakh over Russian in official use, and distanced itself from BRICS+ while strengthening energy ties with the EU.
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Georgia saw mass protests defeat a Kremlin-inspired “foreign agents” law.
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Moldova is accelerating EU integration despite Moscow’s pressure.
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Even Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, long seen as close to Russia, are pivoting toward China and Turkey diplomatically and economically.
The article argues that Russia’s response—bluster, threats, and nostalgia—no longer holds sway. The illusion of Moscow as the center of post-Soviet power is fading. “Azerbaijan is the first to show openly that Moscow can be dealt with differently,” writes Rolofs. “It is ready for dialogue—but not under threat or diktat.”
For the EU, he concludes, this is a “historic opportunity” to step in as a trustworthy partner where Russian coercion has failed. While the Kremlin remains a player in the region, it is no longer the reference point. Power has returned to Baku, Astana, Yerevan, Kyiv, and Chișinău—capitals once expected to take orders from Moscow.
“The louder Russia barks,” the article ends, “the clearer it becomes: it can no longer bite.”
