The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has left unchanged its forecast for Azerbaijan’s production of liquid hydrocarbons in 2025, according to the agency’s latest monthly report.
EIA projects the country’s oil and condensate output at 570,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the year — exactly in line with its June forecast. In Q1 and Q2 of 2025, actual production is expected to average 570,000 bpd, easing slightly to 560,000 bpd in both Q3 and Q4.
For comparison, Azerbaijan produced an average of 600,000 bpd in 2024, with quarterly fluctuations between 590,000 and 600,000 bpd.
Looking ahead, EIA expects production to slow to 540,000 bpd in 2026, with a gradual quarterly decline from 550,000 bpd in Q1 to 530,000 bpd in the second half of the year.
The flat forecast for 2025 signals that, despite recent stability in output, Azerbaijan is still on track for a moderate long-term decline — a trend industry analysts say underscores the need for new upstream investments to offset natural field depletion.
