Azerbaijan.US
The emergence of a South Azerbaijan state within Iran would only become conceivable under conditions of severe political and ethnic repression, analysts say, stressing that no such prerequisites currently exist.
In a recent analysis of developments in Iran, an expert noted that Azerbaijani communities in the country have historically been integrated into Iran’s political, military, and religious elite.
This long-standing presence has acted as a stabilizing factor, limiting the likelihood of ethnic radicalization or separatist movements.
According to the analysis, ethnic identity among Azerbaijanis in Iran has for decades been balanced by broader state and religious affiliations. Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, religious identity largely replaced national and ethnic self-expression, while overt manifestations of ethnic politics were gradually restricted.
The expert argues that a dramatic shift could occur only if systematic pressure were applied specifically on the basis of ethnic identity, including restrictions on language, culture, or social participation.
“If ethnic identity is forcefully suppressed, it may eventually resurface as a political factor,” the analysis notes, adding that such developments typically require a combination of sustained repression, deep political crisis, and the absence of dialogue mechanisms within the state.
At the same time, the expert emphasizes that there are currently no clear indicators pointing to such a scenario. The discussion remains theoretical and contingent on extreme changes in Iran’s internal political landscape.
The analysis concludes that large-scale geopolitical transformations of this nature are never driven by a single factor but emerge only when multiple structural pressures converge over time.
