The already tense relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan is now deeply intertwined with the fate of the Zangezur Corridor — branded in some circles as the “Trump Route.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has voiced a pragmatic stance, expressing his desire for normalized relations with neighbors. Yet entrenched religious hardliners and conservatives within Tehran’s power structure continue to obstruct any thaw, prioritizing ideological rigidity over regional cooperation.
The split in Iran’s leadership is stark. Pezeshkian downplays alarmist narratives about the corridor, noting that Iran’s concerns have been addressed, including issues of territorial integrity and access routes to Europe and the north.
This contrasts sharply with hardline rhetoric from senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Ali Akbar Velayati, who has vowed to block the U.S.-backed corridor “with or without Russia,” framing it as a strategic threat akin to the Panama Canal and warning it could become “a graveyard for Trump’s mercenaries.”
Analysts see this as part of a wider struggle between reformist policymakers aiming for economic engagement with Azerbaijan and the entrenched “deep state” — military and security elites, notably the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — who prioritize geopolitical confrontation over domestic prosperity. Ahmad Alili, director of the Caucasus Center for Political Analysis, said to Media.Az, that this traditional divide has weakened after Iran’s recent 12-day conflict with Israel revealed glaring deficiencies in Tehran’s military capacity and diplomatic alliances.
Alili argues that Iran now urgently needs allies, especially within the Islamic Cooperation bloc, yet its hostility toward Azerbaijan undermines that search. He predicts that the reformist camp may gain the upper hand, as conservatives have failed to guarantee the country’s security. This, he suggests, could force the Islamic Republic to adapt to new geopolitical realities, recalibrating its foreign policy toward greater regional cooperation.
