Baku, September 5, 2025
Political analyst Farhad Mammadov, speaking on Novosti Kavkaza platform, offered an extensive assessment of the SCO summit in Beijing and its implications for Azerbaijan, Russia, Armenia, and broader regional dynamics.
China’s Symbolism and Azerbaijan’s Status
Mammadov said the SCO summit produced no surprises as an institution but served as a demonstration of China’s agenda-setting power. He highlighted the prominence of President Ilham Aliyev’s reception in Beijing, calling it a reflection of China’s growing interest in Azerbaijan as both a transit hub and geopolitical partner.
India Blocks Armenia’s Bid
The analyst argued that India used its leverage to block Armenia’s SCO membership despite Yerevan’s last-minute move to establish diplomatic relations with Pakistan. He described the SCO as a format countries use to calibrate relations with China, rather than a classical alliance structure.
Crisis in Russia–Azerbaijan Relations
Turning to Moscow, Mammadov noted that President Vladimir Putin publicly acknowledged a “crisis” in ties with Baku for the first time since January, citing “fundamental interests” as a basis for stabilization. He pointed to the AZAL plane incident and the detention of 13 Russian citizens in Azerbaijan as the main friction points, warning that if Moscow tries to weaponize “fundamental interests,” Baku would respond in kind.
Ethnic Rhetoric and Business Pressure
Mammadov criticized the targeting of Azerbaijani business groups in Russia on ethnic grounds, calling it “a precursor to future pogroms.” He underlined that many affected individuals are Russian citizens, saying such selective pressure amounts to nationalism and undermines Moscow’s credibility.
Corridors and Connectivity
On regional transport, he stressed Azerbaijan’s flexibility, citing President Aliyev’s proposal to develop a North–South route through Darband, Baku, Nakhchivan, Julfa, and Iran. He said such projects complement broader efforts under the Zangezur corridor framework, which remain central to post-2020 peace trajectories involving Azerbaijan–Armenia and Armenia–Turkey normalization.
Balancing China and the United States
Discussing economic ties, Mammadov said Baku has consistently avoided debt-based arrangements with China, preferring parity-based investment projects. With major Chinese corporations already engaged, he said Azerbaijan will continue balancing cooperation with Beijing and Washington in technology and finance.
Summit Diplomacy and Style
Mammadov emphasized that President Aliyev does not request ad-hoc bilateral meetings at major forums, instead responding to invitations. He said any assumption that Baku would seek out Putin misreads Aliyev’s diplomatic style.
Armenia’s Constructive Role
He described Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s conduct in Beijing as broadly constructive and argued that Washington-brokered understandings between Baku and Yerevan are likely to continue, even as terminology around the Zangezur corridor remains politically sensitive.
Outlook
Mammadov concluded that the global system is entering a prolonged phase of “situational coalitions,” with decisions increasingly made at the leader level rather than through institutions. He predicted Russia will continue losing ground in the South Caucasus and Central Asia unless it adapts, while Azerbaijan will maintain strategic autonomy, deepen partnerships, and advance connectivity projects.
Source: Novosti Kavkaza (in Russian). Full video here
